Arsenal (21-4-7) and Manchester City (19-5-7) will face off today at 11:30 a.m. ET at Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England, in the match that could decide the Premier League trophy's destination.
Manchester City is favored at a -120 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-115o / -120u) goals.
Let's get into our Arsenal vs. Man City prediction.
Arsenal vs. Man City Prediction
Our Arsenal vs. Manchester City picks are a Citizens victory and a Nico O'Reilly goal in this important match.
Arsenal vs. Man City Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -105 | 2.5 -115o / -120u | +333 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -135 | 2.5 -115o / -120u | -120 |
Arsenal vs. Man City Picks, Parlay
- Manchester City to Win (-120, BetMGM)
- Nico O'Reilly to Score (+550, BetMGM)
Manchester City have a scheduling advantage heading into this seismic Premier League fixture: Arsenal featured in midweek Champions League action on Wednesday evening, in a hard-fought second leg quarter-final against Sporting CP.
With their increasingly impressive form and the week off to rest and recuperate, the Citizens will fancy their chances of victory here at Etihad Stadium.
City have beaten each of Arsenal (2-0: EFL Cup final), Liverpool (4-0) and Chelsea (0-3) in their last three games, three of the Premier League’s best, to an aggregate score of 9-0.
Of course, that recent Arsenal head-to-head fixture at Wembley will be the most concerning for Arsenal supporters.
The Gunners were second best on the day and in the underlying data: 1.12 xG vs 2.29 xG. City recorded three big chances to Arsenal’s one, and deserved the silverware which followed the 90-minute period.
Another pick to make is Nico O’Reilly to score in this match. His memorable performance at the EFL Cup final at the end of March was precisely against Arsenal. Not only did he score two goals in a 2-0 City victory, but he showed why he’s a mainstay in this Pep Guardiola side.
Only Erling Haaland (3575) has played more minutes than Nico O’Reilly (3477) in all competitions for Manchester City this season.
O'Reilly is tasked with joining attacks frequently and has shown how adept he is at entering the box and keeping up with play. Both goals against Arsenal in the cup final displayed as much. He has proven to be competent in the air and will be a target at the back post for any City pullback or cross.
O’Reilly boasts nine goals in 46 appearances this season, and the bookmakers got it wrong by ranking him 24th on the anytime goalscorer list for this clash.
Arsenal vs. Man City Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| 29.1% | 24.9% | 46.0% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | 2.54 | 1.42 |
Arsenal vs. Man City Betting Analysis
Arsenal’s recent wobbles mean they are just six points ahead of their title rivals coming into the weekend, and Manchester City have a game in hand.
The tension has been palpable in the Arsenal camp in recent weeks. A series of timid performances has fans fearing the worst. The Gunners have fallen short in recent title races, and there is a feeling that defeat at the Etihad this weekend could hand the initiative to a battle-hardened Manchester City.
In the reverse fixture, Manchester City allowed Arsenal to have the ball, keeping just 33% possession, with both teams failing to reach the one xG (expected goals) mark. However, Pep Guardiola’s side will show far more attacking intent this time around.
The most recent meeting between the teams was Manchester City’s 2-0 win in the League Cup Final. Pep’s team had 62% possession in that game, finishing the match with 1.17 more xG than Arsenal. Expect a similarly positive approach from City here, with the draw suiting Arsenal in the context of the title race.
Arsenal could opt for a defensive approach in this game. A point would make them the clear favorites to get their hands on the Premier League title.
However, Manchester City have scored an average of 2.64 goals per competitive game at the Etihad this season, so shutting up shop is easier said than done.
Manchester City are the favorites thanks to their excellent home record, and Arsenal’s recent woes will only fuel Pep Guardiola’s hopes of seizing the initiative in the title race.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Arsenal vs Manchester City picks.
