Burnley (1-3-1) and Manchester City (2-2-1) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EDT at Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England.
Man City is favored at a -600 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-225o / -175u) goals.
Let's get into my Burnley vs. Man City prediction.
Burnley vs. Man City Prediction
Pick: Manchester City To Win To Nil
My Burnley vs. Man City best bet is on Manchester City and to maintain a clean sheet.
Burnley vs. Man City Odds
| Burnley Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +164 | 2.5 -225o / 175u | +1400 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -215 | 2.5 -225o / 175u | -600 |
Burnley vs. Man City Pick
Manchester City were on the back foot as they drew 1-1 with Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend. They face a much weaker opponent on matchday six, so we are backing Pep Guardiola’s team to win and keep a clean sheet as part of our Manchester City vs Burnley predictions.
Although City have had their struggles this season, they have defended reasonably well, particularly after the international break. Guardiola’s team kept clean sheets against Manchester United and Napoli at the Etihad, and Arsenal only managed to get on the scoresheet in injury time last weekend. City seems in control in front of their own fans, and that’s unlikely to change against newly-promoted opposition.
Burnley has four points after five matches, but the underlying data is more concerning. Their xG (expected goals) of 4.12 is the second-lowest in the division, so they are unlikely to get an abundance of chances against City. Scott Parker’s team also has the highest xGA (expected goals against), which doesn’t bode well as they gear up to face a rampant Erling Haaland.
The Citizens have won their last nine matches against Burnley, keeping a clean sheet in eight. Over that period, Pep’s team has scored 31 goals and conceded just one. It’s likely to be one-way traffic once again as City aim to move up the table and into title contention.
Pick: Manchester City To Win To Nil
Burnley vs. Man City Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Burnley | Draw | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | 12.6% | 81% |
Projected Total Goals
| Burnley | Total Goals | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 3.02 | 2.48 |
Burnley vs. Man City Betting Analysis
Manchester City, aiming to recover after conceding a late equaliser against Arsenal, sits eight points behind leaders Liverpool.
Pep Guardiola's side, led by in-form striker Erling Haaland, is unbeaten in the last three games in all competitions but needs a victory to maintain their title challenge.
Despite a grueling schedule, the hosts will rely on their strong home form, having suffered only two defeats in their past 13 games, and an in-form front line.
Scott Parker’s Burnley have displayed resilience in recent matches, securing a draw against Nottingham Forest and narrowly losing to Manchester United 3-2.
With Martin Dubravka in exceptional form, Burnley will be determined to prove their Premier League credentials.
