Paris Saint-Germain (4-2-1) and Monaco (2-2-3) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Stade Louis II in Fontvieille, France..
PSG is favored at a -185 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+125o / -170u) goals.
Let's get into my PSG vs. Monaco prediction.
PSG vs. Monaco Prediction
Pick: Both Teams To Score
My PSG vs. Monaco best bet is on both teams finding the net.
PSG vs. Monaco Odds
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 3.5 +125o / -170u | -185 |
| Monaco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 3.5 +125o / -170u | +450 |
PSG vs. Monaco Picks, Parlay
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Monaco faces a critical home leg in this Champions League clash. Their record at PSG's Parc des Princes is poor, with just one win and seven losses in their last ten visits. This reality puts immense pressure on them to secure a positive result at home, which necessitates an adventurous game plan. While Monaco has been the lowest-scoring team among all qualified sides, their underlying data tells a different story. They have generated 14.45 expected goals (xG) but have only scored eight times, a -6.45 underperformance that is the largest in the entire competition. This suggests the team creates quality chances but lacks the final touch. In a pivotal home scenario, they will have to press forward and be more clinical.
On the other side, PSG enters as the reigning champion with a formidable attack. Luis Enrique's squad was one of the highest-scoring teams in the league phase, with 21 goals in eight matches for an average of 2.63 per game. Their fluid front three consistently creates problems for defenses. However, their offensive power comes with defensive vulnerabilities. PSG has conceded 11 goals in those eight games, and both teams have scored in six of their nine European matches this season, including the Super Cup. Given Monaco's need to attack at home and PSG's elite offense paired with a susceptible defense, backing both teams to score presents a solid angle for this PSG vs Monaco pick.
PSG vs. Monaco Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| PSG | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 63.2% | 18.7% | 18.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| PSG | Total Goals | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | 3.37 | 1.14 |
PSG vs. Monaco Betting Analysis
This all-French showdown in the Champions League knockouts presents a classic narrative. On paper, PSG is the overwhelming favorite, a fact reflected by their 23-point lead over Monaco in the domestic Ligue 1 table. The Parisians have a history of dominance against domestic rivals in this competition. Last season, they defeated Brest 10-0 on aggregate at this same stage, a result that kick-started their successful title campaign. Luis Enrique’s team will look for a similarly comfortable victory to establish control of the tie.
However, a closer look at the head-to-head history suggests Monaco should not be dismissed. They secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory in their most recent league meeting back in November, a result that will give them confidence. While PSG has won three of the last five encounters, Monaco has found ways to compete and score against the French powerhouse. The aggregate score over the last ten games is 18-13 in PSG's favor, which shows Monaco can find the net.
Monaco’s primary challenge has been a poor attack, a major reason for their domestic struggles. To have any chance of advancing, Sébastien Pocognoli’s team must commit players forward and improve its offensive efficiency. PSG, while perhaps not quite at the imperious level of last season's title run, has shown that the knockout rounds are where they truly excel. Their high-energy, flexible attack is designed to overwhelm opponents, and they will aim for a comfortable first-leg advantage. This dynamic sets the stage for a compelling contest where the home side's desperation meets the champion's ambition.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your PSG vs Monaco picks.
