This is a World Cup year, which means that each Ballon d'Or candidate will need to shine in that tournament and not rely solely on Champions League glory or domestic trophies.
And that makes this market all the more interesting.
The soccer season will conclude with the Champions League Final on May 30, the World Cup Final will take place on July 19, and the Ballon d'Or Award ceremony will be on October 26.
However, you can get an early jump on predicting the Ballon d'Or Award winner on Kalshi, which blends traditional financial markets with advanced prediction systems. It's available in most states, and we wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Use the Kalshi promo code below to claim a $10 bonus when signing up as a new user.
Ballon d'Or Winner Odds
Kylian Mbappe leads the odds and for good reason. He has featured in the past two World Cup Finals, winning one and narrowly losing the other on penalties after leading France's comeback with an amazing three-goal performance.
He was the top scorer at Qatar 2022 and is also leading the category in both the current Champions League and the Spanish league.
If France shines again in the World Cup — and Mbappe performs as expected on North American soil and with Real Madrid in Europe — it will be tough to deny him his first Ballon d'Or award.
However, Mbappe isn't the only player with strong odds. Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane, and Raphinha could also have the year of their lives, plus they have already accomplished enough to be considered.
Spain is another favorite to lift the World Cup trophy, and young phenom Yamal has been carrying Barcelona for the past two seasons.
Kane is a generational striker, and if England finally delivers on the greatest stage, he could very well be the award winner in October (or maybe Declan Rice, who could win the Premier League with Arsenal).
Raphinha has also been a top performer for Barcelona and will surely be key this summer if Brazil takes home its record sixth World Cup.
Lionel Messi, who just won the MLS Cup with Inter Miami and will be 39 this summer, could also win if Argentina repeats on July 19 and if he — against all odds — is once again the best player of the tournament.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
