Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United Odds, Picks, Predictions: Thursday MLS Betting Preview (July 8)

Nashville SC vs. Atlanta United Odds, Picks, Predictions: Thursday MLS Betting Preview (July 8) article feature image

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville standout Dax McCarty.

  • Nashville welcomes Atlanta United to "Music City" for Thursday's Major League Soccer showdown.
  • The host side has been fantastic at home this season, putting together a 4-0-4 (W-L-D) record thus far.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and explains where he's found betting value.

Nashville vs. Atlanta United Odds

Nashville Odds-175
Atlanta United Odds+425
Over/Under2.5 (-125/ -105)
Day | TimeThursday | 8:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds as of Wednesday evening via BetMGM.

Nasvhille SC and Atlanta United meet for the second time in six weeks in a rare Thursday encounter in the Music City.

The first meeting in Georgia proved critical for both clubs.

For Atlanta United, it was arguably the biggest missed opportunity in what has now become a six-match winless run. After all, they led by two entering the 80th minute.

For Nashville, Randall Leal's 80th- and 83rd-minute goals were just more evidence of the team's ability in the clutch.

Since then, Nashville also has scored 83rd-, 92nd- and 94th-minute goals en route to earning seven points from their last 12.

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Nashville Still Unbeaten at Home This Season

Manager Gary Smith's club might be moving to its own place next season, but until then it has transformed Nissan Stadium into a fortress.

Saturday's 1-0 win over the Philadelphia Union improved Nashville's home record to 4W-4D-0L this season.

Those four wins have come in the club's last five on home soil. And goalkeeper Joe Willis and his defense have kept clean sheets in three of those victories.

If there's a criticism, it's Nashville still continues to rely too often on late goals. It's impressive to have rescued seven points from losing positions already, but it's also unsustainable.

Smith will be without defender Walker Zimmerman (United States) and Anibal Godoy (Panama) on Thursday due to call-ups for the CONCACAF Gold Cup.

However, his team enters Thursday's clash in far more favorable form than his counterpart on Atlanta’s bench when it comes to squad availability.

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Talented Atlanta Struggling to Get Results

Slump or no, Atlanta's roster remains immensely talented.

For manager Gabriel Heinze, the question is how much of that talent will actually be available in this fixture.

Defenders Miles Robinson and George Bello, along with goalkeeper Brad Guzan, have already joined the U.S. Gold Cup squad. Winger Ezequiel Barco is with Argentina for its Olympic preparations.

Midfielder Santiago Sosa is questionable with a lower body injury, and striker Josef Martinez is a fitness concern after returning from Copa America.

There are 11 players in total who are either out or questionable, according to the team's official availability report.

And even at something closer to full strength, the Five Stripes were already struggling offensively. Atlanta has gone 278 minutes since its last goal, conceding six times in that span.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Everything is pointing in Nashville's direction. Yet for all of its success, the club is very rarely dominant, which makes its moneyline price of -175 odds and a 63.6% implied probability awful steep.

Remember, half of Nashville's eight home matches have ended in draws. And three of its four wins have come by a single goal, meaning it’s only a moment away from turning into yet another draw.

Also, we don't know exactly how weakened Atlanta will be. Five of those 11 players on the availability report are in the questionable category.

Long story short: it's not that hard to imagine Atlanta not losing. It's far harder to imagine it actually winning. So, I'm advising a bit of a wonky wager: A bet on the draw in the "Home No Bet" market at -155 odds.

Those numbers convey a 60.8% implied probability, but that probability only applies to games Nashville doesn't win. Any game ending with Nashville on top returns your money.

Imagine you simulate this game in these circumstances 100 times. Nashville wins 60 of them. Do more than 60.8% of the remaining 40 games end in a draw? It's a yes for me. Each of these teams has six ties already. That's more than their combined wins and losses.

Pick: Draw — Home No Bet -155)

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