Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad Monday La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Mikel Oyarzabal.
- Real Madrid face a tough test at home on Monday in the form of Real Sociedad.
- The two teams have similar advanced metrics this season, although Sociedad suffered during a disastrous run of form in December and January.
- Sociedad is currently playing well, though, and Matt Trebby explains why he's backing them to get a result in Madrid.
Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad Odds
|Real Madrid Odds||-105|
|Real Sociedad Odds||+280|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +102)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
Just by looking at their advanced metrics, there isn’t much that separates Real Madrid and Real Sociedad this season.
Madrid’s goal difference is +23, Sociedad’s is +21. Sociedad’s expected goals (xG) total is 42.72, while Madrid’s is 41.90. Non-penalty expected goals against? Madrid is 18.85, Sociedad 18.73. (All stats courtesy of Understat.)
The main difference between the two clubs, of course, is that one is a global superclub that spends an ungodly amount of money to sign the best and brightest young talent in the world. The other is a smaller Basque club that tries to keep things local.
Madrid and Sociedad meet on Monday at the Spanish giant’s Alfredo Di Stefano Stadium, and there is betting value on the visitors.
Since the start of 2021, Real Madrid have allowed just four goals in eight La Liga fixtures. Los Blancos have taken 19 points from eight games and enter this contest six points behind city rivals and La Liga leaders, Atletico Madrid.
A shock defeat to Levante on Jan. 30 seemingly ended Real’s aspirations to reclaim their La Liga crown. Fortunately for them, Atletico have just five points from four games since then while Real have won four straight. That’s a seven-point gap they’ve made up over the past four weeks.
Real have allowed just one goal in their last four La Liga games and have kept a clean sheet in three straight. All of this comes without captain Sergio Ramos, who last played for Madrid back on Jan. 14 in the Spanish Super Cup against Athletic Bilbao.
Without Ramos, Raphael Varane and Nacho Fernandez have been doing just fine, and that has been mostly without Dani Carvajal at right back.
Los Blancos got a massive result on Wednesday in the Champions League, beating Italian darlings Atalanta 1-0 away from home. Madrid did play that match against 10 men after Atalanta’s Remo Freuler was sent off in the 17th minute, so we’ll take it with a grain of salt.
Madrid is missing some key playmakers in attack, most notably striker Karim Benzema and winger Eden Hazard. It sounds like there’s some hope Benzema could return for this one, although the focus for his return will be a matchup with Atletico next Sunday.
Without Benzema and Hazard especially, Madrid have struggled to create in attack. According to Understat, they’ve created just 4.03 xG over their last three league games. They created just 1.4, according to FBref.com, against Atalanta despite the man advantage.
In late November, Sociedad were atop La Liga with 23 points from 10 games with a three-point advantage over Atletico, although the Rojiblancos had two games in hand.
What followed was a disastrous 11-match run that not just ended Sociedad’s title aspirations, but also their hopes of a Champions League berth. Sociedad won just one of their next 11 games, drawing six and losing four. After 23 points from their first 10 games, Sociedad got nine from their next 11.
Now, Sociedad enter this matchup seven points behind Sevilla for fourth place in La Liga, and Sevilla has a game in hand.
Sociedad’s last three domestic fixtures have been much better. They have won all three by a combined 9-1 scoreline and created 8.32 xG in the process.
On either side of last weekend’s 4-0 win over Alaves, though, Sociedad were eliminated from the Europa League by Manchester United after a 4-0 loss in the first leg and scoreless draw in the second. Sociedad had the majority of possession in the first leg, but the Red Devils dominated the chance creation, winning the xG battle, 3.0-0.7.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Given Sociedad’s domestic form and chance creation, as well as Madrid’s lack of bite in attack, there’s value here on the visitors taking at least a point.
I’m prepared to have my heart broken by a late penalty going to Madrid and Los Blancos taking all three points, but Sociedad have been playing well of late and registered 1.5 xG on Thursday in the second leg against United.
I’ll back the Basque side to get a strong result in a difficult fixture. The line has shifted over the past couple days in Sociedad’s favor, so I’d suggest locking this in as soon as you can.
Pick: Real Sociedad +0.5 (-115)