West Ham United vs. Leeds United Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, March 8)

West Ham United vs. Leeds United Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Monday, March 8) article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio, center, celebrates a goal with his teammates.

  • Premier League clubs coming off defeats go at it Monday when West Ham hosts Leeds United at London Stadium.
  • The Hammers, who have only lost twice since Christmas, hope to keep pushing toward a Champions League berth.
  • Jeremy Pond details below why he likes West Ham to get the victory.

West Ham vs. Leeds Odds

West Ham Odds +105
Leeds Odds +255
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-143 / +115) 
Day | Time Monday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.

Clubs looking to get back to their winning ways go at it Monday when West Ham United hosts Leeds United in a Premier League affair at London Stadium.

The Hammers have been rock solid as of late despite suffering a 2-1 setback against league-leading Manchester City in its most recent match. West Ham sits in sixth place on 45 points, putting the club just two points behind fourth-place Chelsea.

On the other side, the Peacocks’ rollercoaster ride has kept on moving along through 26 league fixtures. Leeds, which was handed a 1-0 defeat against Aston Villa in its most recent match, maintains its mid-pack position in 11th place with 35 points.

Any sort of positive run down the stretch could easily result in a top-10 finish for the Peacocks.

Let’s take a look at these combatants and see what might be in the cards.

West Ham

Manager David Moyes has the Hammers playing well, despite the Feb. 27 defeat against Manchester City. The club entered that match unbeaten in four league contests, which included back-to-back wins over Sheffield United (3-0) and Tottenham Hotspur (2-1) before the loss at Etihad Stadium.

The one plus Moyes and West Ham could take away from the setback against the Cityzens was the fact they held an impressive 1.6-0.6 advantage in expected goals in a losing effort. It isn’t much consolation for missing out on points, but it shouldn’t leave the Hammers with much cause for concern.

Michail Antonio, who struck for his seventh goal of the season last time out, needs to continue his scoring prowess the rest of the way to give his club a fighting chance at landing a coveted Champions League berth.

Statistically, West Ham has some solid statistics in the advanced metrics. The Hammers sit on 35.5 xG and a stellar 29.2 xGA, resulting in a solid +6.3 xGDiff and +0.24 xGDiff/90 minutes.

The Hammers’ xGA is good for fourth in the league, sitting only behind Manchester City (19.9 xGA), Chelsea (23.7 xGA) and Brighton & Hove Albion (27.4 xGA) in the category.

Leeds

The Peacocks continue to be the most entertaining side in England’s top flight. Win or lose, you know you’re going to get a good effort and highly entertaining match every time they step on the pitch.

If you’ve taken a look at Leeds’ résumé, you likely noticed its penchant to either win or lose matches. The word “draw” just doesn’t seem to be an option or part of the team’s vocabulary. The Peacocks, who are 6-7 away from Elland Road, are even with last-place Sheffield United for a league-low two ties.

Patrick Bamford continues to lurk around the Golden Boot race with 13 goals in his account. That puts the Peacocks’ talisman just four goals behind Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (17 goals), who’s atop the individual leaderboard.

When comparing numbers with West Ham, Leeds’ numbers are a perfect reflection of its season. The Peacocks have a decent 40.0 xG, but a ghastly 43.0 xGA that create a flat -3.0 xGDiff and -0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Leeds has been a Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit all season, which is something I simply can’t get behind when facing a team playing as well as West Ham is at this point. For me, it’s all about consistency as we enter the final third of the campaign and that lies with the Hammers.

That said, I am backing West Ham to bag all three points on home soil. The Hammers, who have lost just two league tilts since Christmas, are simply in better form, so I will back the hosts to keep their UCL dreams alive.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total going over the number. There have been at least three goals in seven of West Ham’s last eight league games, so I will look for that trend to continue in this spot.

Picks: West Ham ML (+105) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-143)

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