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USA vs Netherlands Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview

USA vs Netherlands Odds, Pick, Prediction | World Cup Match Preview article feature image
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Marvin Ibo Guengoer/Getty. Pictured: Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest.

USA vs. Netherlands Odds

Saturday, Dec. 3
10 a.m. ET
FOX
Netherlands Odds -106
USA Odds +333
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+150 / -188)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (+105 / -163)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

The United States qualified for the knockout stage of the World Cup after they beat Iran on Tuesday in a must-win match to escape Group B.

Next up for the Americans is a battle with the Netherlands, who won Group A behind two victories and a draw in three group matches.

Like the United States, the Netherlands also failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. However, the Dutch have a much more impressive footballing pedigree after reaching the semifinals in 2014 and the final in 2010. All of the players from those squads are gone now and a new generation of Dutch players have emerged.

Despite the seven points earned in the group stage, the Netherlands’ performances were far from their best. They produced just 2.3 expected goals (xG) in three matches and offered very little going forward outside of breakout star Cody Gakpo’s three goals. They are likely to be the only group winner to have done so with a negative xG difference.

The USMNT has outperformed market expectations in their outings at this World Cup, drawing with top contender England and beating Iran at an even-money price.

They have a real chance to advance given this matchup, but there are fitness concerns for the Americans that could also present some difficulties for them.

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Netherlands Unimpressive Despite Success

Through three group stage matches, the Netherlands rank eighth in possession percentage. Their opponents have ceded possession to the Dutch in non-dangerous areas and they’ve been largely unable to provide consistent pressure on the opposition penalty area with all of that possession.

They’ve managed just 0.77 xG per match, which is fourth-worst in the tournament and ahead of only Australia, Qatar and Costa Rica. The Dutch have had no problems getting the ball into the final third — they have the fifth-most passes completed into the final third per match.

The Oranje’s attack has really broken down from there because the wing backs have been ineffective in possession and the forwards haven’t played well at all. They rank 10th -lowest in the tournament in passes completed into the penalty area.

Iran had just one fewer attacking touch in the opposition penalty area as the Netherlands did through three matches.

Even Gakpo, who has three goals in this tournament, has only managed four shots. His underlying performances that could better predict future output don’t really suggest his goal scoring is sustainable. The Dutch wouldn’t have won the group if he didn’t run hot with his finishing in three straight matches.

Julian Finney/Getty. Pictured: Cody Gakpo.

The Netherlands did play their best match of the group stage in the finalé against Qatar once striker Memphis Depay returned to start. Depay had only been available in a bench role because of poor fitness entering the tournament. He only played one hour before coming against Qatar, so it’s unlikely he’d be able to play a full 90 on Saturday. Behind him, the Dutch forward options are pretty limited.

Whether it’s Wout Weghorst or Vincent Janssen, neither is a forward that the USMNT can’t contain. Neither get a lot of shots or are going to create shots for others. Weghorst is a good off-ball mover and Janssen can hold up play with his back to goal, but both are in poor form for their respective clubs.

The Netherlands like to play a three at the back defense with two wing backs. The left wing back is Daley Blind, an aging an athletically limited player. He’s in the team because he’s one of the best deep-lying passers in the entire world and a major reason the Dutch are so good at progressing the ball up the pitch from deeper areas.

On the other side is right wing back Denzel Dumfries, who excelled at the Euros at getting into the penalty area and adding shots and ball progression from the wing. However, in this World Cup he’s been out of form. Dumfries has attempted five dribbles and failed all of them. His pass completion rate was just 58% against Senegal and 63% against Ecuador.

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USA Need to Overcome Fitness and Attacking Questions

The United States came into the World Cup without a true striker and finisher and that’s largely been on display in their three matches. The Americans scored two goals and that was enough to win them four points to get through, but they’ve struggled to create chances all tournament.

The USA rank 13th in passes completed into the opposition penalty area and 14th in total touches inside the area at this tournament. Those are average attacking numbers, but the shots and xG numbers are well below average.

Josh Sargent did manage three shots against Iran and did a stellar job of connecting play through his possession. Throw in his pressure off the ball and he does offer value for the USMNT even if he’s mediocre at generating shots.

Sargent and Christian Pulisic both went off with injuries in the match against Iran. Each of them are day-to-day following those injuries, but it seems that both will be in the lineup come Saturday.

Jam Media/Getty. Pictured: Josh Sargent.

Even though the lineups were largely the same formation when listed, there were subtle differences to how Gregg Berhalter tactically approached the England and Iran matches. The USMNT largely sat in a 4-4-2 against England as an attempt to prevent England from progressing the ball up the pitch through the center of midfield.

The two-man pressing front might be required again in this match to combat the back three of the Dutch and prevent easy access into the midfield. Given how poor Dumfries has played, challenging the Dutch to build from the right could be a major boon for the Americans.

One other potential landmine for the Americans could be their fitness. The United States don’t have the depth to maintain their level when they’re forced to take off Serginio Dest, Yunus Musah and Weston McKennie, among others.

Brenden Aaronson is a natural McKennie replacement and provides plenty of pressing and ball-carrying ability, but Musah doesn’t have a natural replacement if this match goes more than 90 minutes.

Berhalter has brought in Shaq Moore for Dest in the last two matches and he’s been unable to retain possession at all. Another physical match in the legs of the Americans and there’s a potential fatigue risk as the match progresses.

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Netherlands vs. USA Pick

Given the strength of the United States’ defense has been preventing teams from getting the ball into the penalty area, it’s easy to see where a mid-block defensive approach could stifle the Dutch’s attack in this match.

Tyler Adams has been the Americans’ best player at this tournament and no one at the World Cup has won more tackles than Adams. He and McKennie can deny access from Blind and the back line into Gakpo and Depay.

Frankie de Jong has been excellent at the base of the Dutch midfield in Qatar, but the rest of the potential starting Dutch midfield — Davy Klassen and Marten de Roon — are older in age and don’t have the range and ball-winning ability that they did in years past.

The plan should be similar to the match against England, except that England has a much more dynamic midfield and a much better overall talent level. Gakpo is an explosive attacking player that can attack from wide or the center, but the rest of the Dutch chance-creation machine isn’t operating at peak efficiency right now.

Both teams have been equally mediocre going forward and all of that points to this match being a bit of a stalemate. Assuming Pulisic starts for the United States, the Americans are closer to a tossup in this match than the market is indicating.

The Pick: Under 2.25 (-115) and United States +0.5 (-110)

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