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Newcastle United (3-3-2) and Everton (2-2-4) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. ET at St. James Park in Newcastle upon Tyne, England.
Newcastle is favored at a +130 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-140o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my Newcastle vs Everton prediction.
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
Pick:Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-103)
My Everton vs Newcastle best bet is for the home side to score 2+ goals.
Newcastle vs Everton Odds
Newcastle vs Everton Premier League Preview
Everton and Newcastle renew their rivalry just four days after their cup clash. Everton won 3-1 at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Everton won three of the last five games between the sides. Goals from James Garner, Hayden Hackney, and Thierno Barry secured that cup victory. Dan Burn added a late consolation goal for the Magpies.
Only one point separates the teams in the Premier League table. Newcastle sit eighth on 11 points and Everton 11th on 10. Both squads want to strengthen their position in the upper half. A win here provides massive momentum for either club as they navigate a busy schedule.
Home advantage has not been a clear benefit for Newcastle. They won only one of their four league games at St. James' Park this year. They secured more points on the road than at home. Everton, however, are still in search of their first away league win. They want to translate their recent knockout success into league points and secure a third consecutive victory at this stadium.
Despite the recent loss, Newcastle produced 28 shots against Everton. This suggests they possess the offensive potential to cause problems. Everton scored in each of their last three games against Newcastle. Another competitive contest with goals for both sides seems likely.
Newcastle face several injury issues. Valentino Livramento remains out with a knee injury, while Amar Dedic will cover the right-back spot. The attack also lacks depth due to multiple absences. Lewis Miley remains sidelined, which leaves Wissa as the primary healthy forward.
Everton miss Jack Grealish due to an internal suspension. However, the return of Branthwaite offers a major boost to the back line. On average, Everton and Newcastle scored 3.0 goals per game in their five most recent matchups. The data points toward a high-event game with plenty of offensive sequences.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Newcastle vs Everton picks.
Newcastle vs Everton Picks, Parlay, Betting Analysis
Pick:Newcastle Over 1.5 Goals (-103)
Newcastle lost 3-1 to Everton a few days ago in a cup contest, but the data shows they deserved a better result. They produced 28 shots and 2.09 expected goals in that away loss. Now at home, the offense should convert those chances into actual goals. The team generated only 9.07 expected goals over the entire league season, but they still scored 12 actual goals. This shows a clear ability to overperform their metrics when presented with opportunities.
Head coach Matthias Jaissle will demand a better conversion rate from his players. His squad scored over 1.5 goals in four of their five competitive games this year. They also scored six goals in their last two league games against Everton, including a pair of goals in their most recent home game against the Toffees. The home crowd will expect a strong offensive response.
Everton sit 11th in the table with 10 points. They are still looking for their first away league win. The squad secured three draws and one loss on the road so far. David Moyes wants his players to build on their recent cup success.
Everton struggle to create high-probability chances, with only eight goals on 10.06 expected goals so far. Only three other clubs scored fewer goals after eight rounds. Their defense must tighten up to stop the high shot volume from the home side. Center-back Jarrad Branthwaite missed the recent cup game due to concussion protocols, and his return would help the defense absorb the pressure.
Newcastle vs Everton Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Newcastle | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 46.1% | 24% | 29.9% |
Projected Total Goals
| Newcastle | Total Goals | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | 2.85 | 1.25 |
