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Roma (1-1-1) and Manchester United (1-2) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. ET at Old Trafford in Manchester, England.
Man U is favored at a +130 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+125o / -157u) goals.
Let's get into my Roma vs. Man U prediction.
Roma vs. Manchester United Prediction
Picks: Roma Team Total Over 1.5 Goals & Donyell Malen Anytime Goalscorer
My Roma vs. Man U best bet is a parlay with a prop on Donyell Malen and Roma's total goals.
Roma vs. Manchester United Odds
Roma vs. Manchester United Picks, Parlay
Manchester United face severe turbulence. The squad is winless in eight competitive matches. They suffered a massive 4-1 defeat to Como in their previous Champions League match. They looked completely disorganized on defense. Cesc Fabregas’ team tore through the defense with ease, and Roma possesses even more offensive talent. The visitors scored over 1.5 goals in 10 of their 12 competitive matches this season. Roma beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 recently and generated three big chances against Real Madrid. Gian Piero Gasperini’s attackers should find plenty of open space.
Donyell Malen stands out as the primary threat. The Dutch forward has 10 goals in 11 games across all competitions. In three European matches, he recorded 13 shots with six on target, which translates to a 23.08% conversion rate. His 2.03 expected goals metric ranks 12th in the tournament, and no teammate matches his production. When he faces a depleted defense, Malen represents excellent value to score.
Roma vs. Manchester United Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Roma | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 28.4% | 22.9% | 48.7% |
Projected Total Goals
| Roma | Total Goals | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 1.21 | 2.88 | 1.67 |
Roma vs. Manchester United Betting Analysis
This Matchday 4 contest carries massive implications. Manchester United sit in 20th place with three points. They rest just above the elimination line. Roma hold the 15th spot with four points. A home loss could push the hosts entirely out of the playoff picture. An away victory would push the visitors closer to an automatic Round of 16 spot.
Historically, Old Trafford presents a major challenge for Roma. The visitors lost all four previous trips to this venue. In 21 away games against English clubs, Roma claim only one victory. Furthermore, Roma won just two of their previous 20 Champions League away matches. However, the current iteration of the hosts looks incredibly fragile. Manchester United failed to win their past four home matches across all competitions. Even in their rare home victories against lesser competition, they allowed 2.90 expected goals combined.
Roma controls the ball at an elite rate. They rank second in the tournament with 61.7% average possession. The hosts will likely sit back, as they average just 48% possession. They will try to counter-attack through Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo. However, defensive lapses continue to plague the English side. They conceded within the first two minutes against both Atletico Madrid and Como.
With key players like Marcus Rashford and Benjamin Sesko sidelined due to injuries, the hosts lack the offensive depth to keep up in a high-scoring match. Roma will also miss Paulo Dybala, but they have enough firepower to expose a defense that struggles to control games.
