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Fulham (2-4-3) hosts Newcastle (3-4-2) at Craven Cottage in London for a Premier League match at 10:00 a.m. ET on Saturday. Both squads enter this weekend with a desire to secure vital points ahead of a difficult winter schedule.
Fulham is favored at a +110 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-155o / +125u) goals.
Let's get into our Newcastle vs. Fulham prediction, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Newcastle vs. Fulham Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-185)
Our Newcastle vs. Fulham best bet is both teams to score, as their defenses have shown vulnerabilities while they have maintained consistent offensive production.
Newcastle vs. Fulham Odds
Newcastle vs. Fulham Picks, Parlay
Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-185, DraftKings)
Both Fulham and Newcastle struggle to find consistent defensive form this season. This reality makes a wager on both teams to score an attractive angle. Each squad has a 56% success rate for this wager this season.
The home side has seen both teams score in their first three home matches. They have managed just one shutout at Craven Cottage so far. Their matches average 3.25 total goals, and they remain vulnerable to fast-break attacks.
On the other side, Newcastle possesses a potent attack. They have produced 12 goals in nine matches and have scored in every away contest this season. However, their defense ranks among the weakest in the Premier League.
They have allowed 15 goals on 16.02 Expected Goals Against. With key defensive players like Valentino Livramento sidelined by an injury and Jacob Ramsey suspended, Newcastle will likely fail to record a shutout.
Since Fulham averages 1.50 Expected Goals per match despite a lower actual goal output, the home side should create plenty of chances against a depleted Newcastle backline.
Fulham generated an impressive 2.24 Expected Goals away to Aston Villa in their last match, at a venue where Manchester City recently lost. This offensive metric should give bettors confidence that the home side will create plenty of chances on their own field.
Meanwhile, even in their recent 1-0 defeat to Everton, Newcastle produced 17 shots and 1.29 Expected Goals. Both sides show a clear ability to create high-quality chances, which strongly supports this Fulham vs Newcastle pick.
Newcastle vs. Fulham Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Newcastle | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 28.2% | 25.9% | 45.9% |
Projected Total Goals
| Newcastle | Total Goals | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| 1.28 | 2.80 | 1.52 |
Newcastle vs. Fulham Betting Analysis
Fulham enters this matchup with renewed confidence after a three-match unbeaten streak. They escaped the relegation zone and now sit 15th in the table. This home contest represents a crucial opportunity to secure points before a brutal stretch of games against top-tier opponents.
While they average just one goal per game, their 1.50 Expected Goals per match indicates that their offensive execution is due for positive regression.
Josh King, a 19-year-old, remains the only player to score multiple goals for Fulham this season, but forwards Rodrigo Muniz and Gonzalo Garcia are prime candidates to find the back of the net in this contest. Their fully fit roster gives them a distinct advantage over their battered opponents.
Newcastle arrive in London under intense scrutiny. Three losses in their last four league matches have derailed their early momentum. They sit 12th in the table and desperately need a positive result to stay in the race for European qualification.
Curiously, Newcastle performs better on the road than at home. They have secured two of their three away victories this season, including a recent 2-0 win at Crystal Palace. A victory here is essential to prevent a mid-table slump. The away side will rely on attackers like William Osula and Yoane Wissa to exploit a Fulham defense that concedes chances in transition.
Historically, this matchup is incredibly competitive. The overall record shows 36 victories for Newcastle and 34 for Fulham, with 15 draws. In their last five matchups, Fulham have claimed three victories compared to two for Newcastle.
Four of those last five head-to-head encounters ended with both teams on the scoresheet. Furthermore, those matches averaged exactly three goals per contest. The Asian handicap market lists Fulham as slight favorites at -0.25, while the goal line sits at 2.75. This implies oddsmakers expect a tight contest with multiple goals.
Given the defensive issues on both sides and their historical tendency to trade goals, this Fulham vs Newcastle prediction aligns perfectly with the statistical data.
Check out the best soccer odds before you finalize your Newcastle vs. Fulham picks.
