Norwich City vs. Aston Villa Odds, Pick, Prediction: Target Total in Tuesday EPL Clash
Tony Marshall/Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Ings of Aston Villa.
- Aston Villa are a big favorite (and growing) against Norwich City on Tuesday afternoon in English Premier League action (2:45 p.m. ET, Peacock Premium).
- Villa has moved from +130 to +115 over the last day, but Brett Pund has his eye on the total in this match.
- Get his full Aston Villa vs. Norwich City preview and pick below.
Updated Norwich vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Norwich City Odds||+255|
|Aston Villa Odds||+115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -135)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings, updated Tuesday morning. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
New Norwich City manager Dean Smith welcomes his former team, Aston Villa, on Tuesday to highlight another full slate of midweek English Premier League games.
Smith was sacked by the Villains in November following a slow start to the new campaign, which opened the door for former Liverpool legend Steven Gerrard to take over as Villa manager.
Since he became the Norwich boss, the Canaries have only picked up one win in five. Meanwhile, Gerrard has guided his new side to three victories in the same amount of games.
Aston Villa has won six of the last seven in the EPL between the two clubs, but Norwich is desperate for points in the fight to stay in the division.
Will Norwich City's Offense Come to Life?
Smith has his hands full to keep Norwich in the English top flight, with the Canaries currently at the foot of the table on 10 points.
If there is one positive, Norwich has picked up half of its points in the five games since Smith became the new manager.
Looking at the advanced metrics over that span, the Canaries have posted a -0.4 Expected Goals difference and an average of 1.16 xG per game, according to fbref.com.
Scoring has been a huge issue for this season, with Norwich failing to find the back of the net in a league-high 10 matches. Meanwhile, its eight goals are also the lowest in the EPL.
Villains Looking to Continue Their Momentum
Gerrard has seen a much better start to life at his new club, claiming wins over Brighton, Crystal Palace and Leicester to go with losses to Man City and Liverpool.
The form from the new manager bounce has helped the Villains climb up the table to 13th and eight points off the relegation zone.
Over the last five matches, Villa has held a -1.7 expected goals difference, which is a number that improves to +0.5 if you remove the last game against Liverpool.
However, Gerrard’s new team has only averaged 0.84 Expected Goals since he became manager, which is one of the lowest in the league over that span.
Even with the low xG average, the Villains have still managed to score seven goals and only been shutout in one fixture.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds over at DraftKings, the visitors are posted as the favorites at +130 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals.
I think there are multiple ways you can attack this game, but my best bet is to take the Under 2.5 goals at -135.
We’ve touched on how the two teams have played with their new managers, but the numbers don’t get any better when you look at the whole of the season.
Starting with Norwich, the Canaries rank last or just slightly better in multiple categories, including non-penalty xG per game (0.85), Shots per Match (10.69) and total Shots on Target (49).
Meanwhile, the Villains aren't too much of a step above them offensively, where they find themselves towards the bottom of the EPL in non-penalty xG/90 minutes (0.90), Shots per Game (10.81) and Big Scoring Chances created (8).
If you wanted to get a better price, I think the No on the Both Teams to Score at -105 is great value as well to oppose both of these bad offenses.
I’m going to stick with the total as my play, with the hopes of seeing a low-scoring game at Carrow Road.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-135)