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Premier League Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Projections & Best Bets, Including Wager From Tottenham vs. Liverpool (Dec. 18-19)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Projections & Best Bets, Including Wager From Tottenham vs. Liverpool (Dec. 18-19) article feature image
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Neil Hall – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur standout Son Heung-min.

Editor’s note: This match has been postponed due to Aston Villa dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak. Check out our European Soccer COVID-19 tracker for more details and the latest updates.

The Premier League schedule has been completely ravaged with postponements due COVID-19 outbreaks inside clubs across the English top flight, leading to only five matches going forward on the weekend card.

However, outside the latest news, we had a pretty big shake-up in the title race, with Chelsea drawing at home with Everton. And the battle for what’s likely the final  Champions League spot saw Arsenal earn a 2-0 victory against West Ham United.

This finish from Gabriel Martinelli 🤤

(via @NBCSportsSoccer)pic.twitter.com/M9wCawvMvG

— B/R Football (@brfootball) December 15, 2021

We’re approaching the festive fixture portion of the Premier League calendar. So, this would be an important time to say that my projections below don’t take into account suspensions or injuries. That said, it might be a good idea to wait until lineups come out or injury news gets announced.

If you’re new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Aston Villa vs. Burnley

Aston Villa Odds -140
Burnley Odds +400
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBSCN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Aston Villa has been playing much better under manager Steven Gerrard, but does have a -0.5 expected-goals differential in his six matches in charge. However, two of them were against Manchester City and Liverpool.

The Villans’ defense has been much more organized and the offense is potentially starting to turn a corner after 1.8 xG, 25 shot-creating actions and 35 touches in the penalty area against Norwich City. The question is whether or not they can break down Burnley’s 4-4-2 formation, which hasn’t been that great this season in allowing 1.55 NPxG per match.

However, Burnley will have some advantages offensively, because most of their chances created come off corners and crosses. Aston Villa has allowed 4.31 xG off of 40 corners this season, and their 0.11 xG allowed per corner is one of the worst Premier League averages. 

🚀 Cornet's 𝘴𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 strike is up for Goal of the Month.

Voting closes at 12pm today, get your votes in here 👇 https://t.co/Yvz8Qn9G7S pic.twitter.com/WncSVEbsqz

— Burnley FC (@BurnleyOfficial) December 6, 2021

Burnley will have the extra rest and one thing I will be monitoring is the status of Maxwell Cornet, as he wasn’t fit enough to play Wednesday. Yet,  with the match against Watford getting postponed, there’s a chance he could play in the meeting. He’s been essential to the Clarets’ attack, scoring five goals in nine appearances and gives them pace to get behind opponents back line.

I only have Aston Villa projected at +100, so I like the value on Burnley getting +0.5 on the spread line at +120 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Burnley +0.5 (+120)

Spurs vs. Liverpool

Spurs Odds +450
Liverpool Odds -175
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +135)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This will be manager Antonio Conte’s first big test at Tottenham, as they take on a red-hot Liverpool team. In his first four matches in charge, Spurs have amassed 6.9 xG and only 3.5 xGA, but Conte and his team didn’t exactly face the stiffest of competition in playing an injury riddled Everton squad, Leeds United, Brentford and Norwich City. 

The COVID-19/Injury list for Tottenham is improving by the day, as it looks like everyone is going to be healthy by match time outside of Christian Romero. However, going up against one of the best offenses in the world averaging 2.60 xG per match is going to be a big time challenge. 

Expected Goals (xG) created by Liverpool since their defeat at West Ham in November:

‣ 3.50 v ARS (4 goals scored)
‣ 2.62 v SOU (4)
‣ 3.20 v EVE (4)
‣ 2.65 v WOL (1)
‣ 2.97 v AVL (1)
‣ 3.48 v NEW (3) pic.twitter.com/F90isQ908h

— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) December 16, 2021

The biggest thing about beating Liverpool is you have to have a team capable of pressing at a high, successful rate to be able to beat them on the counter when they commit too many bodies forward.

Tottenham has been pressing more under Conte and will have the best of Liverpool being thin at the back with Virgil Van Djik, Fabhino and Curtis Jones all testing positive for COVID-19 this week. 

Virgil van Dijk, Fabinho and Curtis Jones have tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss Liverpool's match against Newcastle today. pic.twitter.com/gdiACWSwcz

— B/R Football (@brfootball) December 16, 2021

If you have the attacking talent, you can create some chances against Liverpool, which Tottenham should be able to do with their host being short-handed in defense. With Son Heun-min, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane healthy, they should be able to create some big chances against the Reds’ back line. 

With the injuries to Liverpool’s defense, this match is likely going to feature plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch. That said, I have 3.39 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the total clearing three goals at +100 odds on DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+100)

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