Premier League Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Projections: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace

It's time to overreact to the opening week of Premier League action.

Is Liverpool in trouble? Does Manchester City have the title wrapped up? Is Arsenal a top-four contender? And most importantly how far can Manchester United fall?

Well, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the second set of of matches with their best bets for a full slate.

The pair, which is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the English top flight each week, delivering their favorite picks. They'll also provide their individual model projections for every EPL match.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Aston Villa vs. Everton

Cunningham: In the opening week of action, these clubs combined for 1.1 expected goals. Everton had an excuse because it was facing Chelsea and was without Dominic Calvert-Lewin. In contrast, Aston Villa has absolutely no excuse for 0.6 xG off 15 shots against promoted Bournemouth.

Under Steven Gerrard last season, Aston Villa wasn’t really that impressive as it only averaged 1.18 xG per match and created 17 big scoring chances in his 27 ganes in charge. That's bad.

Everton was poor defensively last season, but if you remove the penalty last weekend against Chelsea, it held its foes to 0.9 xG from open play and the Blues only had 29 touches in Everton's penalty area. However, without Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison last year, the Toffees only averaged 1.00 xG per 90 minutes, And it looks like Calvert-Lewin is going to miss this contest.

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -150, so I love the price we're getting at -105 odds. 

Cunningham's Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-105)

Wolves vs. Fulham

Dabbundo: Wolvesreally struggled as favorites last season when facing some teams lower in the table. They drew both matches with Norwich City, tied and lost to Burnley in two meetings and drew and lost two games to Leeds United.

Wolverhampton doesn't have the attacking firepower to consistently create separation from opponents and that was on full display in the opening match against the Peacocks. 

Fulham is unlikely to press with the same level of intensity Leeds did. Wolves need that space to let its biggest strength — ball-carrying winger types –exploit opponents' high lines.

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New signing Palhinha was one of the most impressive players against Liverpool, finishing with the third-most tackles won. His ability to stop the ball and the Cottagers' work rate off the ball defensively should help it adapt to EPL survival.

Fulham did a fantastic job of stifling an elite ball progression side and I expect Wolverhampton to have trouble turning midfield chances into shots.

My projections have this game as close to a toss-up, with Fulham as a slight underdog, but still undervalued given the line. I only make the Cottagers at +105 and would take them at +115 or better on the Draw No Bet wager.

Dabbundo's Pick: Fulham — Draw No Bet (+125)

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Brentford vs. Man United

Cunningham: Brentford was outstanding against Manchester United at home last season, but didn’t get the result it deserved. The Bees held a 2.2-2.o xG edge and suffered a 3-1 defeat.

So, what did the it show in its first match against Brighton & Hove Albion? Well, that they still have no interest in pressingbecause the Seagulls passed right through them (29% pressure success rate, per fbref.com) in the tilt.

Brentford was a decent pressing team last season, ranking eighth in PPDA, sixth in high turnovers and third in ball recoveries. So, if a good pressing team like Brighton was able to have a 33% pressure success rate and force nine high turnovers, then the Bees should give Red Devils problems.

Last season United ran well on set pieces, allowing only six goals off 13.13 xG overall. So, do you want to guess who allowed the most xG off set pieces on opening week? The Red Devils. And Brentford was a top-five set piece team last season, scoring 15 goals off 17.17 xG, per Opta.

The home/road splits for each side are quite drastic as well, as Brentford had a +6.8 xGDiff at home, while United was -7.4 xGDiff away from Old Trafford.

I actually have Brentford projected as a slight favorite because let’s not forget, these teams were incredible close on xGDiff last season. Brentford finished at -1.3 xGDiff compared to and Manchester United at +0.3 xGDiff overall.

That said, I love Brentford getting +0.5 goals spread line via the Asian Handicap and will make it my top pick.

Cunningham's Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-115)

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Dabbundo: The market isn’t showing much respect to Crystal Palace despite the ckub playing even with Arsenal in the opening match of the season.

Arsenal had its periods of dominance and did earn a 2-0 victory, but Palace attempted more shots in the box and created a comparable amount of xG as well. If you look at ball progression numbers and possession in dangerous areas, the Eagles weren't at all overrun in the midfield.

Finishing variance swung against the Eagles, who missed the two big scoring chances they created, but I was quite encouraged by the performance overall. 

Liverpool will be without Thiago, who is a major key in the midfield. The Reds were at the peak of their dominance in the EPL last season when he was on the pitch and they were considerably worse in xGDiff per 90 minutes when he didn’t play. His ability to control the tempo of the match, win the ball and recycle possession makes Liverpool's midfield more dynamic. 

When Thiago didn’t play at Palace last season, the Reds conceded 2.2 xG in the game. However, they still secured a  3-1 win because of a penalty and excellent finishing. Palace continues to be underrated, so I will bet the club getting two goals on the alternative spread as long as it’s -140 or better. 

Dabbundo's Pick: Crystal Palace +2 (-120)