Premier League Betting Picks | Chelsea vs Brighton Preview

Premier League Betting Picks | Chelsea vs Brighton Preview article feature image

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Chelsea vs Brighton Odds

Sat, Apr. 15
10 a.m. ET

Chelsea Odds


Brighton Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-135 / +100)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Frank Lampard's first week in charge again at Chelsea hasn't gone as planned for the Blues, who lost at Wolves in the Premier League and at Real Madrid in the Champions League in his first two matches.

He'll make his home debut on Saturday against Brighton, who have been one of the hottest teams in the Premier League and are shooting up the power ratings and the table. Brighton lost at Tottenham last weekend after a very controversial VAR decision went against them and the PGMOL had to apologize for the incorrect ruling. The Seagulls' attack has been as dynamic as any in the entire league since Roberto de Zerbi became manager, and Chelsea are still looking for ways to score more goals given their poor attacking form of late.

Chelsea haven't scored in four consecutive league matches, despite producing 1.55 xG per match in those fixtures. The goals will come eventually for this Chelsea side and the market continues to think the attack is worse than it actually is based on the metrics. The finishing has been really poor, but Brighton's high event and chaotic nature of play creates value on the over in this match.

Chelsea Dealing With Baffling Luck

The first 20 minutes against Real Madrid was Chelsea's season in a nutshell. The underlying performances have certainly been below the club's standard, but they were toe-to-toe with Real Madrid in Spain. Joao Felix and Raheem Sterling both had one-on-one opportunities to put Chelsea into the lead early and failed to score. One moment of Real brilliance gave Madrid the lead, Thiabult Courtois made one big save late in the first half and Chelsea went away rather quietly in the second 45.

Chelsea's pressing is sure to be tested here and it should do enough to cause high turnovers against Brighton. Chelsea remain top five in high turnovers forced and passes per defensive action. This attack is still very good in transition on paper and showed that even though they couldn’t finish against Real Madrid on Wednesday. 

The Blues have produced 1.62 xG per 90 since the World Cup break and yet they are producing less than one goal per match in the Premier League in that time span. It's unsustainably poor finishing. The market has priced Chelsea totals quite low in the last month and unders have hit at a decent clip, but they really shouldn't have with just normal finishing variance.

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Brighton Possess Elite Attack

The Seagulls lost a dramatic 2-1 game at Spurs last weekend despite creating more than 1.5 xG. Brighton are the best attack in the Premier League since Roberto de Zerbi became manager and they do so by inviting pressure in their own half and then breaking said pressure to create chances. The attack ranks third in goals per match, third in xG per match and should be able to create chances, even against a big six side. This is the same Brighton that scored on Arsenal twice, City once, ripped apart United for four in transition and put eight on Liverpool in three contests against them this year. 

Last week is a pretty good example of Brighton imposing their style on teams that are supposedly better than them in terms of club size. Spurs have played plenty of low event matches of late against West Ham, Chelsea, Milan and Everton. Brighton forced them into an up tempo and chaotic match and the game could have had four or five goals without some controversial decisions. There were constant transition opportunities for both sides that directly resulted from lots of possessions and turnovers forced high up the pitch. 

Since the World Cup break, Manchester City and Brighton are the only two clubs to produce more than 2.2 xG per 90. If you remove penalties from the sample and only count 11-on-11 minutes, Brighton take the top spot. You could argue this level of production is unlikely to continue — and I would agree — but even with some expected regression baked in this is a top five attack and the parts of the midfield and forwards fit together quite well. That's especially true when you compare it to the "all wide forwards, no true strikers" approach of Chelsea's transfer windows this season.

Chelsea vs Brighton Pick

Another week, another bet on Chelsea to score goals for me. The Blues have burned me a few times in the last couple weeks with bets on them to finally finish, but I maintain my view that the market perception on this attack is too low and that the talent will shine through eventually. Brighton's chaotic style has led to matches with at least 2.5 xG in 13-of-15 contests. 

My projections have 2.71 goals for this match and I’ll bet over 2.5 at -115 or better.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-115 or better)

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