Southampton vs. Manchester United Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday Premier League (Nov. 29)
Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton standout Theo Walcott.
- Manchester United is favored over Southampton in English Premier League action Sunday at St. Mary's Stadium.
- The Red Devils have been painfully average this season, but are priced like a club at the top of the table.
- Get our full betting breakdown for each team and our best bet below.
Southampton vs. Manchester United Odds
|Southampton Odds||+285 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||-108 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+275 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-132/+106) [BET NOW]|
|Time||9 a.m. ET|
Three wins in a row may have cooled Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s hot seat, but Manchester United still have quite the hill to climb in the Premier League. The Red Devils have four wins, a draw and three losses in their first eight matches and have yet to look really convincing.
Manchester United’s 4-1 win over Istanbul Basaksehir on Tuesday in Champions League action was a step in the right direction, but that performance came on the heels of a drab 1-0 win over relegation-favorites West Bromwich Albion the prior Saturday in league play.
The Red Devils’ issues with breaking down teams in a low block are well known, but this matchup likely won’t present that particular problem as Southampton have grown into an in-your-face pressing team under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl.
The Saints have been impressive over the first two months of the season, but their underlying metrics suggest they’re overachieving a bit. Will Manchester United prove too tough a challenge for Southampton?
The Saints are one of this season’s pleasant surprises, boasting a 5-2-2 record and plus-4 goal differential. Southampton hasn’t lost a match since September 20 — a run of seven Premier League matches — but its underlying metrics lag behind the actual results.
The club currently sports a -0.2 expected goals differential, thanks to an offense creating 1.13 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 minutes.
Southampton’s defense is doing the heavy lifting, as it ranks sixth in the league with an average of 1.16 npxG against per 90 minutes. The Saints thrive at disrupting the opposition, ranking second in the league in passes per defensive action and opponent pass completion rate.
The absence of leading goalscorer Danny Ings continues to loom large over Southampton, but it still has viable attacking options in open play with Che Adams and Theo Walcott. You can also throw in James Ward-Prowse, who has developed into perhaps the league’s most dangerous set-piece specialist.
It’s been a weird season for Manchester United. It seems like it’s been to the edge of disaster a few times, one poor result away from Solskjaer losing his job and Mauricio Pochettino sliding in. Yet, every time the Red Devils get to that precipice, they respond with one of their best efforts.
It’s a strange phenomena, but at some point, you expect Manchester United’s season will go one way or the other.
The underlying metrics suggest the Red Devils are more or less where they should be in the standings. According to Understat, Manchester United has amassed 11.22 expected points, so its 13 points might be a bit flattering, but nothing crazy.
In other words, the visiting side has played like a mid-table team and that’s where it sits as we head into the Festive Period.
Like Southampton, Manchester United’s defense has outperformed the offense. The Red Devils are surrendering just 2.87 shots and 0.98 npxGA per 90 minutes. They don’t give up many shots, nor do they give up a plethora of quality chances.
The problem is Manchester United’s defensive fortitude seems to come at the expense of any form of attacking symphony. The Red Devils are creating just 0.08 xG per shot, putting them last in the league in average distance of shots taken at 18.7 yards.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Manchester United has had success when its opponents come at it, so it could have a stylistic advantage in this match. However, I have trouble laying this price with the Red Devils, largely because it’s really a guessing game about which version of this club is going to show up at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Manchester United has more talent and deserve to be favored, but the numbers suggest there isn’t that much of a buffer between the two sides:
|Goals per 90||1.5||1.89|
|Goals Against per 90||1.62||1.44|
|xG Differential per 90||+0.03||-0.03|
|Non-penalty xG per 90||1.0||1.05|
|Non-penalty xGA per 90||0.98||1.08|
At +285, you’re asking Southampton to win this game 26.3% of the time. Manchester United have yet to convince me it deserves that kind of respect against a dangerous team that is in good patch of form.
Pick: Southampton ML +285