Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Brentford Betting Preview (Nov. 20)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Brentford Betting Preview (Nov. 20) article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Ivan Toney.

Newcastle vs. Brentford Odds

Newcastle Odds +165
Brentford Odds +175
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -115)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Two of the teams that have been reeling the most in the Premier League will meet Saturday when Brentford travels to Tyneside to take on Newcastle United.

The duo has combined for just five of the 30 available points in their last 10 combined Premier League contests, but this offers a great opportunity for either to steer itself in the right direction.

Despite an electric start to the season that saw Brentford creeping around the European positions that sit at the top of the EPL table, the Bees are down to 14th now and just four points above the relegation zone. In its last outing against Norwich City, Brentford dropped all three points against the worst team in the league.

The situation is even worse for Newcastle, which is the last team without a win in the Premier League. It hasn’t been able to get over the line in any of its five draws and the consequence is Newcastle is tied at the bottom of the league.

This was supposed to be a debut for Eddie Howe as Newcastle manager, someone who could possibly inject some life into the attack. Instead, it was announced Friday that Howe has tested positive for COVID-19 and will not coach this game.

Where does the value lie in a crucial contest?

Newcastle in Dire Need of Positive Result 

When a Saudi Arabian consortium completed its takeover of Newcastle United, the investment was made with the idea that it was going to be in charge of a Premier League team.

But if results keep trending in a negative direction for Newcastle, there will be serious danger of that not being the case. The team sits in 19th in the league, above Norwich on goal difference, and the advanced metrics don’t paint a pretty picture.

Newcastle is generating the second-highest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league (1.77/game), in addition to the second-least expected goals (xG) in the PL (0.89/game). Newcastle’s production reflects that.

This season, Newcastle has conceded 24 goals and scored 12 of its own. Those numbers are almost exactly in line with what analytics indicate it should be doing.

Howe’s team will be at home against Brentford, but that hasn’t provided any dividends for the side thus far on the year. Newcastle both concede the most xGA at home (2.09) per match while producing the fewest xG at home (0.93) in the league.

It’ll have to buck that trend on Saturday and fortunately for Newcastle, the only player who will be missing from the squad is Paul Dummett. A “new manager boost” would be vital for the Magpies, but that won’t come easy for this team.

Brentford Nowhere Near Season-Opening Form

When Brentford kicked off the season with a drubbing of Arsenal and garnering eight of 15 points, it seemed like the Bees were for real.

That may be the case, but they’ve fallen back towards a common reality for newly promoted Premier League sides. The good news for Brentford is that advanced metrics indicate that it has been underperforming during its poor run of form.

Against Norwich, Brentford generated 2.79 xG against Norwich’s 1.15, and in losses to Chelsea and Leicester City, Brentford also held the xG advantage. Fortunately for us, games aren’t decided by xG and rather by the actual outcome on the pitch, but fortunately for Brentford these numbers make it more than likely that it’ll find better form soon.

Brentford will be missing a host of players on Saturday, including Kristoffer Ajer, David Raya, Zanka and Mathias Jensen. Nonetheless, the Bees will enter the near pick’em with confidence.

Betting Analysis & Pick

One of the worst home sides in the league, Newcastle has given me little reason to believe that it is ready to turn the tide and create a winning result. Brentford, on the other hand, has been unfortunate in recent performances, and there’s far more value in backing a side that has produced than one whose best asset is hope.

Go with Brentford to leave St. James’ Park with three points.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (-110)

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