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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Spurs Betting Preview (March 16)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Spurs Betting Preview (March 16) article feature image
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Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Heung Son-min.

  • Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Tottenham in Wednesday's Premier League showdown.
  • Recent results have been mixed for manager Antonio Conte and Spurs (+125 ML favorites), who are 4-5-0 (W-L-D) in their last nine EPL games.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the matchup below and unveils his top betting pick coming from the props market.

Brighton vs. Spurs Odds

Brighton Odds +225
Spurs Odds +125
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -140)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Tottenham continues its quest for a top-four position with a road visit to Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday in a rescheduled Premier League fixture.

It was a disappointing weekend for both clubs, with the Seagulls suffering a 2-0 home loss against Liverpool. On the other side, Spurs dropped all three points against Manchester United at Old Trafford thanks to a late Cristiano Ronaldo winner.

The motivation for this game belongs solely to Tottenham, which sits six points out of the top four in the table and three points for the top-six positions. Plus, Spurs have two games in hand on United and West Ham United — the current occupants of fifth and sixth position — making this fixture all the more meaningful.

Brighton Hoping to Finish Season Strong

The last two months have been extremely rough on Brighton, which has lost five contests in a row and has only one outright win in its last eight games.

The decline in form can largely be attributed to its defense, which has conceded at least 0.75 expected goals against in seven of its last eight matches and at least one xG in 12 of its last 16 tilts, per fbref.com.

That doesn’t mean their attack isn’t without blame, though. In the midst of this five-match losing streak, the Seagulls have created only 3.6 total xG and have only three 1.0-plus xG outputs in the last seven fixtures, all of which came against bottom-five Premier League defenses.

If there’s good news to be had with Brighton, its that positive regression could be on the way. Entering Wednesday’s game against Tottenham, manager Graham Potter’s side owns a -8 goal differential at home, but only a -0.6 xGDiff overall. Further, Brighton’s attack has proven quite unlucky at the American Express Community Stadium, scoring 10 times on nearly 17 xG this season.

Brighton has also done well to create chances at home against top-half EPL defenses. Through seven such contests at the Amex, the Seagulls are on par with its season-long xG per 90 minutes numbers and have created at least one xG in four of those seven matches.

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Spurs Dealing With Mixed Bag of Results

The recent results have been mixed for new Spurs manager Antonio Conte, who is 4-5-0 (W-L-D) in his last nine Premier League games.

Tottenham has also posted some wildly inconsistent metrics away from home, even if some positive road regression could be on the way (-1 road goal differential on +4.8 xGDiff, per fbref.com). Spurs are 6-6-2 (W-L-D) away from home this season and haven’t been able to string together two consecutive road victories since early January.

The positive for Conte and company is that there have been little offensive struggles away from home. Through those 14 road matches, Tottenham has created the fourth-most xG away from home this season.

However, it has simultaneously allowed at least one xG in six consecutive away from home and 1.4 xG/90 in those six matches, 0.25 xG/90 higher than its season-long output.

Tottenham has also struggled to limit bottom-half sides away from home this season as four of seven opponents have generated at least one xG, while two of the last three games have created 1.5-plus xG in the process.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

While I lean to Tottenham as a side, the prices simply don’t justify getting involved. I would need at least +140 on the visitors to consider playing them and think it’s more likely the market moves in the opposite direction.

I also lean toward under 2.5 goals, but again the price isn’t indicative of my confidence level. If Brighton all of sudden unlocks its offensive potential, this could turn into a high-scoring contest given how well the Spurs attack is playing at the moment.

As a result, I’m looking to the prop market instead, specifically both teams to score in this meeting.

With both sides playing on short rest, I expect you’ll see some tired legs at the back. Plus, Tottenham has only been held deservedly goalless once in the Conte era, but there are simultaneously trends supporting a Brighton goal.

Not only could positive regression be on the way, but I just doubt the Seagulls fail to score in four home matches in a row. For as much as its struggled of late, their attack isn’t that bad.

Brighton has also gotten on the board in four consecutive fixtures against Tottenham, so I’ll take a stab here at what I consider a discount offering.

 Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-120)

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