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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Burnley vs. Tottenham EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 23)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Burnley vs. Tottenham EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 23) article feature image
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James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.

  • Burnley welcomes Tottenham to Turf Moor for Wednesday's intriguing Premier League match.
  • Harry Kane and Spurs, who are heavy -130 ML road favorites, are coming off a huge upset win against Manchester City.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and has found plenty of value on the Tottenham team total.

Burnley vs. Spurs Odds

Burnley Odds +370
Spurs Odds -130
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

With both sides coming off big wins, Tottenham and Burnley face off Wednesday at Turf Moor in a rescheduled Premier League fixture.

Spurs took down reigning champion Manchester City in a 3-2 upset thriller at Etihad Stadium this past Saturday, while Burnley turned in its best road performance of the season in a 3-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion.

This fixture represents a big opportunity for both sides. A win for Burnley could bring it much closer to escaping the drop zone, while three points for Tottenham would bring it level on points with West Ham United and Arsenal. It was also put the club only four points out of a Champions League spot.

Burnley Hoping to Build Off Road Upset

The Clarets will undoubtedly be riding high upon returning to Turf Moor, where it has played quite well this season.

Despite accumulating the second-fewest home points in the English top flight, Burnley holds the 13th-best home expected-goal differential in the league. Plus, its attack could see some positive regression coming its direction as manager Sean Dyche’s squad has scored nine goals on 11 xG on home soil, per fbref.com.

On the flip side, its defense has played brilliantly at Turf Moor. Even though there’s a chance some negative defensive regression could be coming, the Clarets have posted an xGA per 90 minutes average of 1.23 at home, which is well below its season-long average of 1.46xGA per 90 minutes.

That said, this match will mark Burnley’s third consecutive home fixture against a top-six club, with the past two causing problems for its defense. Manchester United and Liverpool posted 2.1 and 1.6 xG, respectively, against a normally-strong Burnley home defense. Those totals represented the highest and third-highest xG outputs against the Clarets at Turf Moor.

Furthermore, a good amount of Burnley’s success at home has come through good performances against bottom-half sides. The Clarets are winless in five (two draws; three losses) against top-half opposition at Turf Moor and own a -2.5 xGDiff, according to fbref.com.

Finally, history says an outright victory might prove an uphill climb. Across Burnley’s last eight Premier League fixtures against Tottenham, it owns an unimpressive 1-5-2 (W-L-D) record.

Harry Kane, Spurs Deliver Shocker Against City

Tottenham produced arguably its best performance since manager Antonio Conte took over at the helm, winning as +925 moneyline underdogs.

Take away Manchester City’s penalty and bettors will find Tottenham created more xG from open play (1.62-1.27), per fotmob.com. Additionally, Spurs generated more big chances (4-2) despite being outshot by a 21-6 margin.

That offensive performance is indicative of a larger positive trend for Tottenham under Conte. Since his arrival, Tottenham is creating 2.02 xG per 90 minutes and has only been held under 0.5 xG once, which came at Chelsea.

The scariest part? Tottenham is still due for some positive offensive regression based on those 13 performances under the Italian boss. It has created 26.2 xG during that span, but has only found the net 23 times.

Plus, although there have been some concerning performances lately, its defense has played better under Conte. All told, the London side is conceding only 1.10 xGA/90, just below its season-long average of 1.19 xGA/90 minutes.

The last aspect worth mentioning about Spurs is its incredible record against bottom-half sides. Through 11 such fixtures, the top-four chasers are 9-1-1 (W-L-D) and creating 1.76 xG per 90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though Burnley is a hyper-defensive home side, I believe there could be some goals coming at Turf Moor.

And because of its home record, I also believe you’re getting some discounts on various Tottenham markets. Combine that with the club’s aforementioned record against bottom-half clubs and I believe there’s a good angle of attack with the total.

In those 11 matches against the bottom half, Spurs have created at least 1.6 xG in eight games, but two of the three times it failed to do so came with Nuno Espírito Santo in charge. Additionally, in the seven matches against lower-half sides since the appointment of Conte, Tottenham has either scored twice or created at least 1.5 xG in six of seven contests.

Add in its potential for positive offensive regression overall under Conte and Burnley’s recent record against top-half outfits at home, and I’m a huge fan of Tottenham’ clearing its team total of 1.5 goals. The number currently sits at -115, but I personally have that marked projected at -130 odds.

So, eliminate some juice on the Tottenham ML and instead go for the club to break down a Burnley defense that has conceded at least one xG goal in six of its last seven matches.

Pick: Spurs– Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)

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