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Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United EPL Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United EPL Betting Preview article feature image
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Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standouts Mason Mount, left, and Cesar Azpilicueta.

  • Chelsea welcomes Newcastle United to Stamford Bridge for Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
  • The Blues, who are huge -300 ML favorites against the Magpies, have been dominate of late.
  • Nick Hennion breaks down the matchup below and explains why he expects Chelsea to rout Newcastle.

Chelsea vs. Newcastle Odds

Chelsea Odds -300
Newcastle Odds +900
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Newcastle United travels to Stamford Bridge on Sunday to face Chelsea, where it looks to continue its torrent pace to begin 2022 part of the season.

The Magpies are unbeaten in the calendar year, which includes a midweek comeback victory at Southampton. Chelsea also arrives on short rest after cruising to a 3-1 road triumph against Norwich City in Thursday’s game.

While Newcastle is an entirely different side since the last meeting, the first contest didn’t go well at St. James’ Park. Chelsea earned a 3-0 win against then-manager Steve Bruce’s side, which marked the third consecutive win for the visitor in this matchup.

Sizzling Chelsea Displaying Dominant Form

The recent form for Chelsea has been strong. Manager Thomas Tuchel’s squad is unbeaten in nine games across all competitions and unbeaten in its last five Premier League fixtures, featuring four wins and a draw.

Further, the Blues have only dropped all three points once in the calendar year  and have seemingly rediscovered its prime defensive form. In its last seven EPL matches, Chelsea has conceded only 5.5 expected goals on five actual concessions, per fbref.com.

In fact, only two of Chelsea’s last 11 opponents have surpassed the 1.0 xG mark, including only one of the last six contests.

That said, Chelsea’s attack has produced mixed results of late and hasn’t been able to sustain a continued threat. In its last five contests, Tuchel’s side has created 1.34 xG per 90 minutes, a mark that is almost 0.4 xG/90 minutes lower than its season-long average.

It has also wildly over-performed on its xG numbers in those five outings, scoring 11 goals on just 6.7 xG this season. The good news for Chelsea, though, is that now it returns home where its attack has played much better, particularly against the bottom half.

In seven home games against such opposition, Chelsea is creating two xG per 90 minutes and has cleared at least 2.2 xG in four of its last five such matches.

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Newcastle Enjoying Some Luck During Run

Although Newcastle has produced a strong start to 2022, it has come with some good luck.

In its nine unbeaten games this year, Newcastle hold a +9 goal differential. However, its xGDiff comes in at +3.9 in those matches. Included in that metric is a midweek performance against Southampton, who despite losing 2-1 took the xG battle by a 1.3-0.7 margin, per fbref.com.

And all due respect to the Saints, this will be the first real test for manager Eddie Howe this year. The Magpies have yet to face a squad currently inside the top five away from home, with all three of their road victories coming against sides currently 10th or worse in the table.

Newcastle has struggled mightily against the top six sides away from home on both ends of the pitch. In three road games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester United, it owns a -5.3 xGDiff overall. Plus, it has never surpassed 0.7 xG in any of those tilts and conceded at least two xG in all three contests.

That’s indicative of a larger problem for the Magpies against the top sides on historic level. Across its last 15 games against them, they have lost every match on xG despite owning a 1-12-2 (W-L-D) record in those matches.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Model Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

Eventually, I feel Newcastle has to come back down to Earth and this is the perfect match for it.

The one thing we know about Howe’s squad is that it struggles greatly against pressure. As of Friday, it owns the second-worst pressure success rate percentage against in the Premier League. On the flip side, Chelsea is eighth-best in pressure success rate and has posted an above-average percentage in eight of its last nine home EPL fixtures.

Plus, the problematic factor for Newcastle’s run is that it isn’t seeing much of the ball. Across its last eight games played at full strength, the Magpies have seen an average of just under 40 percent possession. That won’t work against a Chelsea side that, with the right amount of possession, will pepper Martin Dubravka with shot attempts.

Lastly, Chelsea has bossed proceedings in the five home matches against the five worst teams against pressure it has faced to date. In those contests, it has created at least two xG on four occasions.

I’ll be shocked if Newcastle pulls off an upset, so I’m happy to lay the goals with the hosts.

Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-115)

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