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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Betting Preview (Nov. 27)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Betting Preview (Nov. 27) article feature image
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Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Steven Gerrard

Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +125
Aston Villa Odds +240
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Aston Villa’s first game with new manager Steven Gerrard at the helm was a productive one, with the Claret and Blue notching three points after two goals past the 80th minute.

It was a key result for Villa beyond the meaning it had in Gerrard’s first game. The team that he picked up had lost five in a row and was in serious danger of completely falling apart, so the result was far bigger than just the points at stake.

😍 Ashley Young's assist.
😍 Ollie Watkins' finish.
😍 Steven Gerrard's celebration. pic.twitter.com/zHWJE1EMJ8

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) November 22, 2021

Crystal Palace enters the battle on the heels of two wins and a stunning 3-3 draw with Burnley. In the back-and-forth slugfest, the teams traded five goals before the break before Burnley took the final goal just after halftime and held on for a point.

Recent form has vaulted Palace up to 10th in the league, but how will it fare against a newly rejuvenated Villa side?

Crystal Palace Continue to Progress

Before the recent run which has seen Palace take seven points of nine, the team was defined by its inability to get over the line. The Eagles had four consecutive Premier League draws heading into their fateful win at the Etihad, and it seemed that they couldn’t get any luck.

That changed at the end of October, and they’ve been red-hot since then. Palace has generated seven goals on 4.74 xG in the recent three-game period, and it came in with excellent game plans against Man City and Wolverhampton in its two wins.

Even more important, two of those results came on the road, which is never easy in the Premier League. Palace will return home to take on Gerrard’s Villa team, and the mentality for the Eagles will have changed since the end of October. Now, the expectation and goal is three points.

Despite likely not having James McArthur or Nathan Ferguson at his disposal on Saturday, Patrick Vieira will be able to roll with a very similar side to the one that has been finding success over the past few matches. That will give Palace a lot of confidence as it heads into another key battle.

Aston Villa Getting ‘New Manager Bump’

There’s no questioning that the phenomenon known as the ‘new manager bump’ is real. It’s merely a matter of how much the impact is, rather than if it exists.

We saw that last weekend, when Villa turned in its best performance since September when it got by Brighton and Hove Albion. It was the first time that Villa had an edge on xG in a contest since beating Everton on September 18.

Gerrard has shown that he’s capable of being a top-flight manager given his incredible success at Rangers. Not only did he provide the Scottish team with its first wins over Celtic in over six years, he brought the domestic title back to Rangers in dominant fashion.

Because of that, it doesn’t come as a big surprise to see Gerrard earn the respect of his team this quickly. Never mind the fact that Gerrard was one of the greatest footballing minds and talents when he played for Liverpool throughout the early 2000s and 2010s, but he truly has the ability to translate that into similar managerial success.

He’ll need to continue to show that this year, as Villa is still just four points out of the relegation zone as the season nears its halfway point.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite the attacking prowess that we saw from both teams last week, I believe that we’ll see a regression on Saturday.

Villa hasn’t generated more than 1.07 xG in a game since its 3-1 defeat against Arsenal on Oct. 22, and Palace has only generated 1.47 xG/game at home in the PL this year.

The recent performances from each side don’t represent their standard production rates on offense, and because of that I believe you can get decent value in this total.

Back the squads to put in solid defensive shifts and put an emphasis on defense in this contest.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

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