Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United & Brighton to Score in EPL Match (Feb. 15)
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo
- Manchester United welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Old Trafford for Tuesday's Premier League match.
- The Red Devils, who have struggled of late, are -130 favorites to get past the always dangerous Seagulls.
- Nick Hennion breaks down the meeting below and explains why he's expecting both sides to score goals.
Man United vs. Brighton Odds
|Man United Odds||-130|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Tuesday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Premier League clubs in the top of the table meet Tuesday at Old Trafford when Manchester United hosts Brighton & Hove Albion.
Both sides enter this fixture on short rest following their individual weekend fixtures. Manchester United dropped points at home, drawing 1-1 with Southampton, while Brighton earned a 2-0 road victory at Watford.
This marks the first meeting of the season between these clubs. However, the Red Devils enter on a six-match winning streak against the Seagulls.
Positive Regression Coming for Man United
The Red Devils were recently on good run of form, but have slipped recently.
They have only dropped all three points once in the last 12 Premier League fixtures. However, they are just 2-1-3 (W-L-D) in the last six.
That said, there could be some positive regression coming for manager Ralf Rangnick’s side. In the last four matches, United have registered a +3 goal differential but on a +4.1 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Additionally, United’s offense has been able to generate chances in those matches, scoring six times on 8.3 expected.
The other positive worth noting with United is their record at home against top-half opposition. Outside of two blowouts against Manchester City and Liverpool, United have won all four of their remaining meetings against the top-half on xG, including Saturday’s fixture against Southampton.
Plus, in those four matches against Southampton, West Ham, Wolves and Arsenal, the United defense has held up somewhat well. It is conceding only 0.9 expected goals per 90 minutes and has held three straight opponents under 1.5 expected goals.
Lastly, Manchester United have played quite well at home against the Seagulls, particularly in attack. In their last three home fixtures against Brighton, United have won all three on xG while averaging two xG per 90 minutes in those fixtures.
Luck Could Come to End for Brighton
Brighton & Hove Albion have been specialists in avoiding defeat this season, but the wins have been few and far between.
Saturday’s 2-0 victory against Watford marked only the seventh win all season for the Seagulls, who have only dropped all three points four times this season.
That said, Brighton’s win-draw-loss record has balanced out as of late. Three of their seven total wins have come in the last seven EPL fixtures and manager Graham Potter’s squad has posted only one loss in the last eight.
That said, Brighton’s defense could be in for a good amount of negative defensive regression based on the last eight fixtures. The Seagulls have conceded only seven times — including two or more goals only once — but have posted a xGA number of 8.9 in those eight fixtures, per fbref.com.
Brighton have also come up incredibly lucky on the road this season. Through 12 road fixtures, the Seagulls hold a +3 goal differential on a -2.5 xGDiff. Plus, they have only won two road fixtures on xG against Watford and Burnley while drastically over-performing on their road xGF numbers (15 goals for on 12 expected goals) this season.
Lastly, Brighton have posted below-average defensive numbers in four of their last six road fixtures, all of which came against sides that rank below Manchester United in the xG per 90 minutes table.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There’s an argument to be made this is a must-win match for Manchester United, but I don’t way to lay a price against draw specialists Brighton.
That said, where I do see value in this match is in the prop market, specifically both teams to score. The Both Teams to Score (Yes) wager has cashed in five of the last seven Premier League meetings between these sides, while two straight have seen each side generate at least one expected goal.
Based on the aforementioned defensive metrics for Brighton, I expect United will be able to get on the board fairly easily. That would presumably leave the onus on visiting Brighton to cash this bet.
Two factors lead me to believe they will be able to do so. First is that United have only kept one of 11 top-half sides to zero goals and under 0.5 xG this season.
Additionally, Brighton have only been held goalless six times this season, but their underlying metrics suggest they deserved a goal in five of those matches.
With that in mind, back both teams to get on the scoreboard at Old Trafford.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-125)
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