Southampton vs. Manchester City Odds & Pick: Bet City to Win Big in Saturday EPL Clash

Southampton vs. Man City Odds

Manchester City will look to extend its 12-match winning streak in a visit to Southampton Saturday as both teams ready for a January international break. 

The reverse meeting on Matchday 5 saw these sides play to a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium, a draw that remains one of only three times City has dropped points this season. 

But the Saints are no stranger to a big home upset as it defeated City, 1-0, in July 2020 at St Mary’s Stadium. However, that remains one of only two successes for Southampton across the last nine meetings, as it has lost seven of the last nine against the defending champions. 

Southampton's Solid at Home

Somewhat surprisingly, Southampton has quietly proven a very capable home team this season. Through 10 home fixtures, the Saints have only one outright defeat, coming against Wolves on Matchday 6. 

However, it has simultaneously been the kings of the home draw, as Southampton has only three outright home victories, all of which came against bottom-half opposition. 

Plus, even though the Saints currently sit 11th in the home xGDiff table, expect some negative defensive regression to come soon. In those 10 home matches, Southampton has conceded only nine goals but on nearly 11 xGA, per fbref.com.

Additionally, it has slightly outperformed its home xG output, posting 13 home goals on 12 expected. 

Furthermore, even though Southampton won a point in the most recent meeting with City, the metrics suggest City should have won all of the points in that match. Southampton lost the xG battle 1.0-0.43, were out-chanced, 12-8, and lost the big scoring chances battle, 2-0, per fotmob.com. 

That’s indicative of a larger trend for Southampton, who tend to struggle against the EPL’s top-half squads. In 12 such fixtures, manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s squad has only one outright victory and has lost 10-of-12 on expected goals, including four straight. 

Hasenhuttl’s defensive unit has also struggled mightily in those 12 fixtures, as it has allowed fewer than one expected goal only once and at least 1.5 xGA in seven of its 12 fixtures.

Perhaps of even larger concern will be the fact Southampton is due for negative defensive regression based on that fixture set, as it has allowed 21 goals on 22.4 expected. 

Man City Continues to Dominate Lower-Tier Teams

It simply can’t be overstated how well Manchester City has played in its last 12 fixtures. 

The Cityzens have won half by multiple goals, posted at least two expected goals in nine and allowed fewer than one expected goal in 10.

Additionally, only once has City’s defense conceded more than a single goal, while its attack has scored two or more goals on nine occasions. 

Plus, if you refine that list down to the six matches against bottom-half opposition, bettors will find City has been absolutely clinical. Four of the six wins have come by multiple goals, and City has held four of the six opponents to under 0.3 expected goals. 

Perhaps most impressive about City’s campaign to date, though, is its ability to dominate on the road. Not since the opening Matchday have City lost, while posting the best road xGDiff in the league (+15.8 on a +15 goal differential).

Additionally, the City attack has played brilliantly away from the Etihad, posting under 1.5 xGF on only three occasions. 

Now, if there’s any cause for concern with manager Pep Guardiola’s squad, it’s that they essentially have the Premier League title wrapped up and could get complacent. A Matchday 22 victory over Chelsea gave the Cityzens an 11-point lead over the Blues, who do have a game in hand. 

But so long as the Premier League remains the only competition in focus, bettors should have few worries with City. In its last three EPL campaigns, City have only dropped all three points during the months of December and January and have won 25-of-30 matches outright. 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If you want to dare step in front of City, be my guest. 

But the aforementioned metrics tell me this match only ends one way — a City blowout. So, while I’m perfectly fine laying a goal-and-a-half at -120 odds, I’m trying to find some plus-money with the Cityzens. 

Believe it or not, the City attack has underperformed its underlying metrics in its last five meetings with the Saints. Guardiola’s squad has scored eight goals in the last five, but that comes on 11 expected.

Additionally, City has proven incredibly unlucky in the xGDiff margin across those five head-to-head meetings. It holds a +4 goal differential over Southampton in five but on a +6.2 xGiff. 

With that in mind, go for City to end the month of January on a high note and (potentially) win by three or more goals.

Pick: Manchester City -1.75 (+105)