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Everton vs. Leicester City Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Toffees Pick Up Much-Needed Points?

Everton vs. Leicester City Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Toffees Pick Up Much-Needed Points? article feature image
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Peter Byrne – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton standout Richarlison.

  • Everton is desperate to pick up points against Leicester City on Wednesday as it tries to fend off the relegation zone.
  • The Toffees are three points clear of 18th-place Burnley but have a tough schedule ahead, so any result here would be critical in that fight.
  • See how Ian Quillen is betting this match below.

Everton vs. Leicester City Odds

Everton Odds +130
Leicester Odds +220
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -130)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Everton looks to earn another critical home result in its battle against Premier League relegation Wednesday it hosts Leicester City at Goodison Park.

The host side enters the midweek contest on 10 days’ rest after a crucial 1-0 victory over Manchester United. That marked the Toffees’ fifth home win in seven matches across all competitions under manager Frank Lampard.

Leicester is only three days removed from a frustrating 2-1 defeat away to Newcastle United decided by Bruno Guimaraes’ stoppage-time winner. The result leaves the Foxes 12 points back of a Europa Conference League place with eight games to play.

These teams finally meet after a postponement in early January because of combination of COVID-19 concerns and other absences. They’ll reconvene again May 7 at King Power Stadium.

Everton Players Fighting for Lampard

Everton’s last performance revealed a squad still fighting for its current manager despite inconsistent results.

The Toffees’ 1-0 win over United came at the end of a brutal three-match, seven-day stretch. The second of those games — a 3-2 loss at relegation foe Burnley — was their most deflating performance of the season, coming after holding a 2-1 halftime lead.

That said, Everton’s victory less than 72 hours later didn’t erase concerns about Lampard’s attack. Anthony Gordon’s deflected first-half winner owed mostly to good fortune. Understandably, Everton focused on defending its lead after that, but the result was still a fourth consecutive home league fixture, scoring one or fewer goals and posting an xG of 1.0 or fewer.

If there are signs of approaching attacking improvement, they might lie in the Toffees’ recent away performances.

Everton still has yet to earn a point from its travels under Lampard. However, the Toffees created more in non-penalty xG in their last two away matches than in their first three games. And while criticism of the attack is fair, so is allowing a new manager an adjustment period despite the high stakes of relegation.

That could be what we’ve seen in the overall performances since the March international break. All three were a bit better than expectation, even if Burnley marked a crushing loss.

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Leicester City Trying to Maintain Focus

The first question to consider when evaluating the Foxes right now is whether Sunday’s defeat will shift their focus away from the league.

Manager Brendan Rodgers’ side is well safe of any serious relegation threat on 40 points. And even though it hs three matches in hand on seventh-place West Ham United, it’s hard to imagine closing the 12-point gap required to seal a European return.

Then there’s their current Europa Conference campaign, which continues with a quarterfinal against AS Roma, with the first left at home later this month.

On the other hand, Rodgers began the contest at Newcastle with leading attackers James Maddison and Harvey Barnes on the bench. They’re both likely to be in the starting side, making the host’s task all that much harder even if striker Jamie Vardy remains out injured.

That said, the Foxes’ away form might be what keeps them from a return to Europe after their deep Conference run this year. They’ve won only once in their last 10 away EPL games, and have just three away league victories overall. Leicester conceded in all but one of those 15 matches.

The Foxes have earned only 13 points total away. That’s tied for 16th in the league, despite and xG difference of -7.0 that is 13th in the league.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

Part of Everton’s strong recent home form has owed to good fortune and strong goalkeeping from Jordan Pickford. The Foxes’ two goals conceded are well ahead of 4.2 xG allowed.

On the other hand, there’s both quantitative and qualitative evidence suggesting the attack might be improving. And when Lampard’s side has struggled most, it has been against teams playing a high line of confrontation.

That’s not Leicester, which sits in more of a middle block and have consistently struggled to defend on the road.

With Maddison and Harvey both likely to start for the visitors, I don’t trust either side to keep a clean sheet here. I could also see this being the game where Everton’s attack takes a major step forward and wins, while scoring multiple goals. Yet for me, the value is on both teams finding at least one goal at -135 odds and an implied 57.4% probability.

Both teams have scored in 10 of 15 Leicester away league contests. It hasn’t happened in an Everton home match under Lampard yet, but occurred six of 10 times prior to his arrival. And if you look at how each squad is built, Everton is more suited to regress to Leicester’s trends than the other way around.

Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-135)

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