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Premier League Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Manchester City vs. Newcastle United EPL Betting Preview (May 8)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Manchester City vs. Newcastle United EPL Betting Preview (May 8) article feature image
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Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Gabriel Jesus.

  • Manchester City welcomes Newcastle United to Etihad Stadium for Sunday's Premier League match.
  • The Cityzens are heavy favorites against the Magpies, which lines up with analyst Nick Hennion and his top pick.
  • Check out below why he's backing Man City via this scoring prop.

Man City vs. Newcastle Odds

Man City Odds -650
Newcastle Odds +1700
Draw +700
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 /-155)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City, fresh off its stunning Champions League collapse, welcomes Newcastle United to Etihad Stadium for Sunday’s Premier League showdown.

The Cityzens arrive unbeaten in their last eight EPL fixtures, including three consecutive wins over Brighton & Hove Albion, Watford and Leeds United. As for Newcastle, a 1-0 defeat to Liverpool last weekend put an end to a four-match winning run.

The reverse meeting at St. James’ Park saw Manchester City dominate on its way to a 4-0 victory.

Man City Maintains Slim Edge in Title Race

Although Manchester City’s UCL exit will likely still sting, the good news is that it has crushed foes in the English top flight of late.

In its last 10 domestic games, City has created 2.38 expected goals per 90 minutes and has a +16.5 xGDiff, per fbref.com. Additionally, it has allowed more than one xG only three times in that span and more than 1.5 xG only once.

City has demonstrated further dominance at home as well. Through 17 home games, manager Pep Guardiola’s side has created 2.28 xG per 90 minutes and has created at least two xG in four of its last five at Etihad Stadium.

And just in matches against bottom-half sides at home, City has been virtually flawless. It is 7-0-1 (W-L-D) through eight matches and has a +14.4 xGDiff, per fbref.com. It has also kept six of those eight sides under one xG overall.

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Newcastle Hoping to Finish Campaign Strong

It’s been a bit of a roller coaster ride for Newcastle this year as it tends to get results in spurts.

After a nine-match unbeaten run extending from Dec. 27 to March 10, the Magpies dropped three consecutive games before winning four in a row.

Unfortunately for manager Eddie Howe, luck has been on Newcastle’s side of late. Across its last 10 EPL matches, Newcastle owns a +1 goal differential, but a -1xGDiff, per fbref.com.

Additionally, its defense has struggled to keep out top-notch opposition. Its last fixture against Liverpool saw Newcastle concede once on 2.3 xG almost a month after yielding five to Tottenham on 3.1 xG in that game. In fact, through eight matches against the top-five clubs, Newcastle is 0-8-0 (W-L-D) and has conceded 2.18 xG/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Is it possible there’s contrarian value on Manchester City at home?

All that seems to be talked about in the lead-up to this match is that there’s no way City can recover from Wednesday’s result. However, I’m personally more concerned by Newcastle’s aforementioned record against the top-five sides.

I certainly don’t want to lay multiple goals with City off that result, but I think Guardiola’s side has its way at Etihad Stadium. In those same eight home fixtures against bottom-half foes, City has scored at least twice in all but one and at least three goals in all but three games.

Meanwhile, Newcastle has conceded at least four times in three of its last four matches against Manchester City and has allowed it to create two or more expected goals in four head-to-head meetings in a row at the Etihad.

Although some might consider it too big of a price to lay, I’m backing Manchester City to clear 2.5 goals via its team total at -135 and would play that market up to -145 odds.

Pick: Manchester City — Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

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