Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Back Crystal Palace to Open Scoring Against Everton

Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Back Crystal Palace to Open Scoring Against Everton article feature image
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Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Benteke.

  • Crystal Palace hosts Everton in Sunday's Premier League showdown at Selhurst Park.
  • The Toffees have conceded first in six of seven away matches and 11 of 15 overall, which isn't good entering this road match.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the contest below and explains why he likes Crystal Palace to score first in this meeting.

Crystal Palace vs. Everton Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +125
Everton Odds +220
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+125 / -175)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Crystal Palace look to turn the strong substance of their home performances into more consistent results when they host an Everton side that has been all over the map.

Palace have lost three in a row to slide to 14th, two points beneath Everton. But they come in solid favorites based on the efforts they’ve given at Selhurst Park, where they’ve lost only once in seven league fixtures.

Everton finally snapped an eight-match winless slide with a 2-1 home victory over Arsenal last weekend. They’ll need a string of positive results to truly quell recent talks of a crisis at Goodison Park, where the expectations are much higher than their current 13th-place standing.

The Toffees took four points from six in these teams’ meeting last Premier League campaign, winning 2-1 in London and settling for 1-1 draw in Liverpool. Both games were played behind closed doors.

Crystal Palace Looks to End Losing Streak

As expected, Palace spent the majority of their time defending during last weekend’s 1-0 loss to Manchester United at Old Trafford.

They were mostly successful, limiting the Red Devils to only three attempts on target. But they ultimately succumbed to Fred’s exceptional first-touch, 20-yard strike in the 77th minute.

Palace’s best chance came earlier in the second half. From the edge of the six-yard box, Jordan Ayew fired wide of the far post on a set-piece sequence that — had it resulted in a goal — may have been reviewed for a potential offside.

Right back Joel Ward returns from a one-match suspension. Center back Joachim Anderson is available after missing more than a month with a hamstring issue.

But influential central midfielder James MacArthur remains out, surpassing a month since his last action due to a hamstring issue.

This three-match losing stretch started with a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa that was Palace’s first in seven league fixtures at Selhurst Park.

But too often they’ve settled for home draws, earning only 10 points of 21 possible despite a +6.1 differential in expected goals (xG).

Everton Coming Off Spectacular Win vs. Arsenal

Demarai Gray’s stoppage-time thunderbolt ultimately gave Everton a desperately-needed three points against Arsenal last Monday.

But it was Richarlison’s exceptional effort that powered the Toffees to a result that looked unlikely for most of the evening.

The versatile Brazilian international had goals on either side of halftime eventually ruled out by the virtual offside line, before his clever header pulled Everton level in the 80th minute.

Gray then sent Goodison into uproar with his bombastic effort off the inside of the right post, ending an eight-match winless run.

Monday’s match was supposed to mark center back Yerry Mina’s return from a hamstring injury, but the Colombian had to leave early with a calf issue.

Everton continue their extended run without striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but Venzuelan attacker Solomon Rondon is available after missing the Arsenal match.

The Toffees began the year overperforming their xG, but predictably their results have been far worse than the sum of their chances created and allowed.

Their -6 goal differential is nearly four worse than their xG totals currently predict.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Many of the advanced metrics here point to a low-scoring Palace win.

The Eagles’ own track record at home and Everton’s away record point to just about anything else. So, instead of trying to play something statistical here, I’m going to try to back team tendencies, particularly Everton’s slow starts.

The Toffees have conceded first in six of seven away matches and 11 of 15 overall. The Eagles haven’t exactly been early killers in home games, but they’ve still found the net first on four of seven occasions.

I’m taking Palace to do so again here at -115 odds and an implied 53.5% probability.

Pick: Crystal Palace To Score First (-115)

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