Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nottingham Forest vs Everton Preview

Nottingham Forest a Moderately Different Home Side

It's been a different story at the City Ground, however, which explains in part how Forest sit above Everton in the table in their first Premier League season since the late 1990s.

The Trees have scored in all but two of their home league matches, and although they're tied for the second-fewest total scored (and one behind league-worst Everton), their 15 home goals in 12 games is tied for 13th in the league.

That doesn't exactly mean they've thrown caution to the wind when playing in front of their own supporters. Three of Forest's five league home wins have come despite generating fewer xG than their opponents.

But perhaps that's partly a result of a shift in focus to becoming tougher to beat and swapping a back three for a back four. In the 17 games since Steve Cooper opted for that change, Forest have earned 1.23 points per game and pasted  an xG difference of -0.42 per 90 minutes. Those numbers were 0.57 and -0.91 before the switch.

However, a rash of injuries may have Forest trending in the wrong direction again, having lost the xG battle in each of their last four games. While Sunday's home side also misses second-leading scorer Taiwo Awoniyia, the bigger worry may be the shortage of center backs against an Everton side that has scored a large share of their goals from set pieces.

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Everton Competing in Certain Circumstances

Since Sean Dyche was appointed last month to replace Frank Lampard, Everton have played a more conservative 4-5-1 that some fans had called for much of the season.

That shift has enabled Everton to stay in games at least through most of the first half. But so far it has all broken down if and when they concede.

Regardless of the manager, the Toffees have yet to win a match in which they've conceded the first goal. And they've taken only one of their 21 points from a losing position, oddly enough in a 1-1 draw against Manchester City.

This probably owes to a squad that is frankly just devoid of attacking options off the bench. Ideally, striker Neal Maupay would've been that for Everton, but more than half of his 18 appearances have been starts due to Dominic Calvert-Lewin's continued injury troubles.

The sale of Richarlison in the summer and then Anthony Gordon in the winter now has this Everton squad without their two most dynamic players from last year's relegation scare as they face another one this spring.

Nottingham Forest vs Everton Pick

The line here smells a little. Forest are unbeaten in their seven at home, and the analytics suggest they should be a slightly heavier favorite than they are, with their -1.2 xG difference at home against Everton's -13.7 away xGDiff mark.

Additionally, the center back situation is concerning given that, if nothing else, Everton have some solid aerial threats in Conor Coady and James Tarkowski.

But if this is a purposefully deceptive line in any way, it might be to limit bettors from playing the draw. Forest have drawn four of their last eight at home and four of 12 overall, whilst Everton have drawn four of their 12 away.

It's hard to take Everton to win at +185 odds seriously, given they've scored multiple away goals only once this season. The draw is a lot more likely by comparison.

My play here is the rarely used home-no-bet market to back the teams sharing a point at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability that a game that Forest doesn't win ends in a draw. If Forest take all three points, it's a push.

If you're looking for something more aggressive, consider a same-game parlay on the draw and under 2.5 goals or maybe a wager on one of Everton's center backs as an anytime scorer.

Pick: Draw – Nottingham Forest No Bet (-110 via BetMGM)