Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions for Leicester City vs. Liverpool (Nov. 22)

Liverpool vs. Leicester City Odds 

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Liverpool play host to Leicester City on Sunday in a battle between two top-four clubs dealing with mess of injuries. I will do my best to handicap this matchup thoughtfully, but it will be imperative for bettors to check the starting lineups before submitting any bets.

With that said, this should be a high quality soccer match and I'm excited to see who prevails.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Liverpool

The Reds have started off the year on a really strong foot, considering the circumstances. Their squad is riddled with injuries.

Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez are now out for the long-term. Jordan Henderson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mo Salah are out Sunday. Thiago Alcantara and Fabinho sound like game-time decisions.

Most of my analysis will be contingent on who is in the lineup tomorrow unfortunately.

I do think that Liverpool can survive without Salah. Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane are still a dominant front-three that can execute plenty of chances.

The bigger concern will be in the midfield. If Joel Matip, Fabinho and Thiago play, I would feel a lot more confident about backing Liverpool.

Injuries aside, Liverpool still lead the league with 1.8 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per match and rank third in npxG allowed at 0.97 per match. That defensive form could dip without Alexander-Arnold and Gomez, but Andy Robertson, Matip and Fabinho are far from a disaster if the latter two are fit.

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Leicester City

What a start for the Foxes this season. They currently sit in third and would move back into first with an upset at Anfield Sunday.

Leicester have also been dealing with some injuries. They will again be without Caglar Soyuncu, Ricardo Pereira, and Wilfried Ndidi. Wesley Fofana and Timothy Castagne are also dealing with injuries. It sounds like the latter two should be able to give it a go, but Leicester are far from fully healthy as well.

If Leicester are able to field a front-three featuring James Maddison, Youri Tielemans, and Jamie Vardy they should be a handful for Liverpool's depleted defense.

While they do sit near the top of the table, the advanced metrics are not kind to the Foxes. Leicester have created 1.73 xG/game but they're only generating 0.97 npxG/game. That is double the difference between Liverpool's xG and npxG. Point blank: Leicester's production significantly has come from the penalty spot this season. Part of that is due to the talents of Jamie Vardy, but long-term that screams regression.

Leicester's defense has been solid, allowing a respectable 1.16 xGA per match. Brendan Rodgers has done a terrific job setting up this team for success, but they will to stop being so dependent on penalties if they want to contend for a top-four spot.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Like I said in the intro, this is a tough match to forecast because of the injuries. I am confident that Liverpool's front-three will be able to create enough scoring opportunities, but this match could come down to who plays in the middle for the Reds.

If either Thiago or Fabinho start or are available, I would back the Reds. Leicester's penalty luck will regress, and I would need to see more shot creation to back them in this spot.

I do expect both teams to be able to score here, so I will be playing the total going over three goals at minus-117 odds on the alternative number.