Wednesday Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Manchester United vs. West Ham Preview (July 22)
ANDY RAIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Rashford
- Red-hot Manchester United is a huge favorite over West Ham in Wednesday Premier League odds, though West Ham has been playing well since the restart, too.
- Anthony Dabbundo thinks Man U is slightly overvalued given their underlying metrics haven't been quite as good as their results over the last few weeks.
- Get his full breakdown and picks for Manchester United vs. West Ham below.
Man U vs. West Ham Odds
|Man U odds||-480 [BET NOW]|
|West Ham odds||+1200 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+600 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+110/-138) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Wednesday, 1 p.m. ET|
|Our Best Bet||West Ham +1.75 (+100) [BET NOW]|
While Tuesday’s Premier League matches were focused on the relegation battle, Wednesday’s doubleheader will finalize each of the top four Champions League scenarios ahead of Championship Sunday.
Manchester United can’t clinch a top four spot with a win on Wednesday when West Ham visits Old Trafford, but they can put themselves as clear favorites to return to the CL if they can secure all three points.
West Ham is all but safe from relegation now, and it would take a historic collapse of 13 goals of goal difference in two matches to face relegation.
West Ham and United enter Wednesday’s clash as two of the most in-form teams in the Premier League. The Irons have won three of their last five matches, including two dominant wins over Watford and Norwich and an upset of Chelsea. No player in the league has created more expected goals (6.33) or scored more non-penalty goals than striker Michail Antonio (7) since the restart.
Manchester United is second in the PL in xG difference and hasn’t lost a match, while WHU is seventh in xG and went from teetering on the brink of relegation to all but safe with two matches to play. I’m not too concerned about their motivation in this match, but I am concerned about the fixture pileup for United of late.
The Red Devils have beaten up on some of the PL’s worst since June (Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Brighton, Palace), and looked brilliant in winning those matches, but they are now playing their 10th match in 32 days. They started poorly against both Palace and Southampton in their last match and never really started against Chelsea on Sunday.
The lack of depth behind Manchester United’s front five was evident in the Red Devils 3-1 defeat to Chelsea on Sunday in the FA Cup semifinal. Paul Pogba, Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Mason Greenwood have proven to be an excellent attacking unit since the PL restarted, generating 2.1 xG and scoring 2.71 goals per match in their last seven. Yet on Sunday, without some of that attacking group, United never really looked like a threat.
Manchester United are clearly an improved team since the return of Pogba and addition of Fernandes, but their improvement also came at a time where United went from xG underperformers to overperformers. Martial, Fernandes and Greenwood have all drastically overperformed their expected goals numbers to an unsustainable point this season.
West Ham’s had its defensive issues all season, allowing the fourth highest xGA in the PL, but that number has improved since the restart, where the Irons are eighth-best defensively.
this one's admittedly a bit of an eyesore, but here's the whole Premier League this season pic.twitter.com/0TR6pTn25T
— Kees van Hemmen (@HemmenKees) July 21, 2020
I’ve admittedly been lower on Manchester United than the market, especially since the restart. They’ve benefitted from a historic number of penalties called in their favor and a great run of finishing that is bound to run out at some point. My numbers suggest the Red Devils are significantly overvalued at the current price. With the Irons also having a few extra days of rest, I’ll back them to cover the spread and keep this game at Old Trafford competitive.
Since my numbers also give both teams to score a 59% chance of occurring, I’ll also back both teams to score in what should be an open game as United looks to create a goal difference edge over Leicester City before their Sunday matchup.
The bets: West Ham +1.75 (+100), Both Teams to Score (-110)