Newcastle vs. Liverpool Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Take the Under at St. James’ Park (Wednesday, Dec. 30)

Newcastle vs. Liverpool Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Take the Under at St. James’ Park (Wednesday, Dec. 30) article feature image
Credit:

Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Alisson Becker (left) and Fabinho.

  • Liverpool heads to St. James' Park on Wednesday to take on Newcastle in a Premier League match.
  • Liverpool sits atop the Premier League table and is the heavy favorite Wednesday, while the hosts are in 15th.
  • Dillon Essma previews this match and shares his betting pick below.

Newcastle vs. Liverpool Odds

Newcastle Odds +850 [BET NOW]
Liverpool Odds -345 [BET NOW]
Draw +500 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-200/+160) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Liverpool will travel to St. James’ Park on Wednesday to take on Newcastle.

The Reds are atop the league yet again, and deservedly so. They are coming off a frustrating draw against Big Sam and West Brom, so Jürgen Klopp will want a win here.

Newcastle will likely just try to frustrate the Reds and pull out a point.

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Newcastle

The Magpies sit 15th in the table in a season where they are destined for mediocrity.

I was silly enough to think some nice transfer signings could bring some life to Newcastle, but I was wrong. Steve Bruce needs to go.

This team is underperforming, playing with no life and seemingly have no plan — they basically roll the ball out and just play pickup. I would like Bruce to actually manage the squad, considering he is getting paid handsomely to do so.

Newcastle beat West Brom, outlasting the Baggies with a 0.90-0.57 xG margin, then pulled out a draw against Fulham (only because Fulham picked up a red card) and then were handily defeated by both Leeds (1.44-2.95) and Manchester City (3.2-0.2).

I would expect another anemic performance tomorrow.

Newcastle’s advanced metrics put them in the relegation zone, with a NPxGD mark that is third-worst in the Premier League (-8.78). The only offense worse than Newcastle’s is that of West Brom, who are far and away the worst team in the league.

The Magpies’ 0.82 NPxG/game is just unacceptable when you have players like Callum Wilson, Allan Saint-Maximin and Joelinton, who are expensive and talented.

To have less production than Burnley and Sheffield United, who have zero expensive attackers, is just laughable. The worst part is they are good enough to be mid-table, but will likely continue to see more of the same results.

Liverpool

The Reds are atop the Premier League table yet again.

Liverpool have had a few disappointing draws in their last few matches against relegation teams in Fulham and West Brom. However, they haven’t lost a game since early October.

Fulham just played really well at home and deserved the point. Liverpool definitely should have defeated West Brom (1.45-0.74 xG), but that’s soccer. The equalizer was an unlucky bounce for the Reds, but West Brom worked their tails off.

Liverpool’s wins over Wolves and Crystal Palace were dominant, and the Reds dominated possession against Spurs in a close win. I would expect three points from them tomorrow.

Liverpool rank third in NPxGD with +11.31, trailing Man City and Chelsea. The Reds are frequently clinical and have scored 37 goals this season, with only 30.46 xG. This was true last season as well, when they scored 85 goals on 75.19 xG.

Their front three and attacking fullbacks are lethal, and their play on the defensive end has been equally impressive.

The Reds were ravaged by injury, especially at the back. Fabinho is a great CDM, but he is now one of their CBs. If they can sustain that defensive output, Klopp and the Reds will be tough to de-throne this season.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I like the Reds to win, and I definitely lean -1.5 (-122). However, my play is the under.

I saw this under at 3.5 (-120) earlier in the day and loved it — now we get under 3.25 (-130) or under 3 (+102).

This is the third game in 10 days for Liverpool, and the fourth game in 10 days for Newcastle. The congested schedule should lead to tired legs and fewer goals.

Pick: Under 3.25 (-130) or Under 3 (+102)

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