Liverpool vs. Southampton Odds

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The festive period of the Premier League is sadly coming to a close on Monday, as Liverpool travels to the English South Coast to take on Southampton. The Reds need a win to keep up with close rivals in the table Leicester, Spurs, Man City and Man United, who all won at the weekend.

Liverpool

A look at the underlying numbers suggest that Liverpool are only marginally worse in 2020 than they were in their historic 2019-20 title winning campaign. But the Reds’ last two games are a perfect example of why they aren’t nearly matching their points total from last season.

Against both West Brom and Newcastle, the Reds outperformed their opponents on expected goals, dominated possession and produced enough chances to win the game. But some bad post luck, great goalkeeping and mediocre finishing led to 1-1 draws.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

There are areas where the Reds aren’t quite as good. They’re not as dominant in the opening 30 minutes of games, they’re conceding a much higher xG per shot, which can lead to more goals in the long run. Their goalkeeper play hasn’t been at the elite level, and the loss of Virgil van Dijk has hurt them on set pieces. But as a whole, Liverpool’s xG difference per 90 is only about a tenth of a goal per 90 worse.

With that being said, the market is still overvaluing them here. Liverpool has had issues when they’ve had to press more, or been pressed. Southampton should be able to force their style onto Liverpool and make this a high pressing game and poke holes in the Reds’ makeshift backline.

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Southampton

The Saints have tumbled down the table in recent weeks and are winless in their last four matches. Southampton were xG overperformers for a while in the Premier League, buoyed by excellent finishing – specifically from outside the box.

Southampton have just one goal in their last four matches and their pressing intensity has marginally decreased in recent weeks as the games have piled up during the festive period. The Saints have the fifth-worst xGF in the PL and have struggled to create chances.

But there are some reasons to look to buy low here. Their defense has shown legitimate improvement as the season has progressed, and they’ve allowed one or less xGA in each of the last five matches.

Saints still have the second highest pressing intensity in the league, and Liverpool’s back line has not been nearly as effective at press resistance as they were last season.

Liverpool-Southampton Best Bet

I make Liverpool -120 in this match, and will look to continue to play against them away from Anfield in future matchups. While the Reds rank first in xG differential at home this year, they rank ninth in xGD/90 on the road.

I think Southampton keeps this close. Even if they lose, I don’t see them getting blown out.

The pick: Southampton +1 (-120 or better)