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West Ham vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds & Picks: Back Hammers to Get Result at London Stadium

West Ham vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds & Picks: Back Hammers to Get Result at London Stadium article feature image
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Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Tomas Soucek

West Ham vs. Chelsea Odds

West Ham Odds +370
Chelsea Odds -120
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Chelsea will travel just south of its home to take on West Ham in an important all-London battle.

The Hammers have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the Premier League thus far, and their success has given them a legitimate chance to contend for the vital fourth position in the league.

The Blues are atop the PL table, a point ahead of Man City and two points ahead of Liverpool, but this game presents a challenge for the league leaders.

Just a few weeks ago, Liverpool stumbled at London Stadium in a match that featured everything good about this newly energetic West Ham side. The Hammers didn’t necessarily outplay Liverpool (they lost the xG battle), but it felt like a real quality performance.

Can West Ham pull off another upset at its home ground?

West Ham Dealing With Difficult Reality

When you qualify to play in a European competition, the money that comes with it is immense. That’s why the pressure to maintain a standing as a consistent Champions League or even Europa League qualifier is major.

However, it’s not easy to do that, and that’s partly because of the difficulties that arise when playing in a European competition. An added game in a number of weeks can create additional fixture congestion and fitness problems in an English season that has enough of it without extra games.

Playing in the Europa League this year, West Ham is battling through that element. Last week, a contest in Austria with Rapid Wien was played just three days prior to a match with Man City. On Thursday, West Ham will host Dinamo Zagreb.

Fortunately for the Hammers, they’ve clinched the top spot in their group, so even more rotation will likely be used for that matchup. Nonetheless, with the December fixture congestion they’ll have to deal with, we’ve already seen some impact in form.

West Ham has taken just one point in its last three Premier League outings, and this challenge will be as difficult as any home match can come. The Hammers aren’t a particularly dominant home side, ranking seventh in home xG (1.65/game) and eighth in home xGA (1.3/game), and Chelsea has nearly identical away numbers (more on that later).

The team will have to display another impressive performance of cohesion and grit to find a result.

Chelsea Finding Results Without Thriving

Despite leading the Premier League, Chelsea hasn’t been the best team in the PL, and recent performances have shown that.

While a ton of credit has to be given to Thomas Tuchel, Edouard Mendy and the rest of Chelsea’s team for displaying incredibly toughness and an impressive will to win, it feels like time is ticking on the Blues.

That isn’t to say that they can’t compete for the title, but performances are going to have to improve. At the moment, Chelsea is third in the league in xG (1.85/game), nearly 0.5 off the pace of Liverpool and City. The same can be said on the defensive end (1.15 xGA/game), where Chelsea is third.

On the road, Chelsea’s numbers stack up almost identically with West Ham’s home metrics. The Blues produce the exact same xG while allowing just .09 xGA more per game.

Chelsea could also be dealing with a host of absences on Saturday, as N’Golo Kante, Reece James, Trevoh Chalobah could all miss out. Ben Chillwell will also remain sidelined due to his ACL injury.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

On paper, this is a match that projects to have razor thin margins. Of course, sports aren’t played on paper and that’s why Chelsea has managed to grind its way to this point in the season.

There isn’t much that separates the two teams when Chelsea is playing away from home, and some crucial injuries encourage me to give the edge to West Ham, who has shown its capability of stepping up to generate a big result.

I believe that the Hammers have a real shot at exiting with all three points, but Mendy may decide that he won’t let that happen or Chelsea may just find an extreme bit of luck or a great performance, but the value lies with the home side.

Back West Ham to regroup in this matchup.

Pick: West Ham +0.5 (+110)

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