Wolves vs. Manchester United Tuesday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: (Dec. 29)
CARL RECINE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Romain Saiss (left) celebrates with Pedro Neto.
- Manchester United looks to get back to its winning ways Tuesday when it hosts Wolves in a Premier League fixture.
- The Red Devils are heavy favorites, but Dillon Essma thinks this line is too steep for the home team.
- Check out Essma's full preview for Tuesday's match below.
Wolves vs. Manchester United Odds
|Wolves Odds||+500 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||-175 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115/-108) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|How to Watch||NBCSN|
Manchester United welcomes Wolverhampton to Old Trafford Tuesday afternoon for what should be a high-quality Premier League matchup.
It will be interesting to see how Ole Gunnar Solskjær and Nuno Espírito Santo manage their respective squads with a lot of games in a short period.
Wolves have been tricky to beat, and Manchester United are coming off of a draw. The Red Devils will want to get back to winning ways at Old Trafford.
Manchester United are unbeaten since the beginning of November. Their recent play brings them to fourth in the table, with a game in hand over the three clubs above them.
The Red Devils have two draws in their last four games. Their 0-0 draw with Manchester City was deserved, but they probably should have taken all three points against Leicester City (xG 2.08-1.04).
Outside of those two matches, Manchester United have picked up three points in every match. An interesting point is that all dropped points have come at home this season. So they will definitely want to build better form at home, and will want to pick up three points after their disappointing draw with the Foxes.
The Red Devils are currently in the top four, but their +4.26 NPxGD ranks seventh in the Premier League. The main reason for this is once again on the defensive side of the pitch. Their NPxGA is 14th in the Premier League.
Manchester United’s attack is lethal and is hiding some weaknesses elsewhere in games. Edinson Cavani has been a nice addition, and recently has appeared to be a better option over Anthony Martial.
Bruno Fernandez has been simply sensational and generates an expected goal by himself every match (0.56 xG + 0.46 xGA/game).
The Red Devils are still best against teams that go at them, and still struggle against sides that force to break them down. Their defending will have to improve to stay within the top four.
Wolves currently sit 11th in the table, five points behind the top six. The goal for Nuno and Wolves is to make it into European contention.
Not having goal-scorer Raul Jimenez has been a large hurdle, but they still sit within striking distance of where they want to be. Pedro Neto has picked up the slack, and is responsible for seven goals (4 G, 3 A) in Jimenez’s absence.
Surprisingly, 18-year-old signing Fabio Silva leads the team in xG/game (0.43).
The form has been a mixed bag since Jimenez has been out, but I do think Nuno’s side is playing well considering the circumstances. They should have picked up a point against Villa (1.14-1.27 xG), should have picked up at least a point against Burnley (1.46-1.20 xG) and could have defeated Spurs (0.74-0.41 xG).
It would help if Adama Traore returned to his form of last season, but all in all, I think it’s more positive than negative.
Advanced metrics would say Wolves are exactly in the right place at 11th (-2.32 NPxGD). There is not much to break down in that number, as both offensively and defensively they are right in that ballpark.
We all knew it would be tough to cope with life without Jimenez, and that has been true.
Wolves finished eighth in NPxG last season. However, the dropoff is actually on the defensive end, which is pretty fascinating. Last season, Wolves were second in the EPL in NPxGA/game at 0.92.
However, this season that number is 1.10/game — good enough for eighth — thanks to the Matt Doherty-Nelson Semedo swap and squad rotation at the back.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m sure most would back the Red Devils at home over a mid-table Wolves side, but I think this line is a bit too steep for Man United.
Wolves have shown the ability to pick up points in difficult games (Chelsea and Spurs). I have to bet Wolves at +1 (-121).
Pick: Wolves +1 (-121)