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Premier League Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Leeds United vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Preview (May 11)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Previews & Best Bets: Leeds United vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Preview (May 11) article feature image
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George Wood/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jesse Marsch of Leeds United.

  • Leeds welcomes Chelsea to Elland Road for Wednesday's Premier League clash.
  • The Peacocks are in dire straits, sitting as the favorite to be the final team relegated.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the game below and gives his top pick.

Leeds vs. Chelsea Odds

Leeds Odds +375
Chelsea Odds -150
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Leeds United no longer controls its own relegation destiny, but the club can boost its Premier League survival chances Wednesday with a home upset of Chelsea at Elland Road.

This will be the Peacocks‘ third successive game against a likely top-four finisher after suffering a 4-0 home loss against Manchester City and a 2-1 road defeat against fourth-place Arsenal.

Unlike those two previous clubs, third-place Chelsea is winless in its last three outings, most recently giving back a two-goal lead in a 2-2 draw against Wolverhampton. And the Blues arguably have little to play for since they’re virtually guaranteed a top-four finish, but out of the title running.

Chelsea took the teams’ previous meeting in a 3-2 victory in December in a game decided by Jorginho’s second penalty kick in second-half stoppage time.

Leeds Trying to Avoid EPL Relegation

If you had told Leeds supporters that manager Jesse Marsch and his men would take 11 points from his first nine matches in charge, most would’ve taken it.

Yet Leeds remains in the relegation places due to its foes’ recent efforts. Burnley enter the midweek slate 17th on goal difference and winners of three in a row before Saturday’s home loss to Aston Villa. Everton has a point and match in hand on both after taking 10 points from a five-game stretch, in which the club’s only loss was away to title chaser Liverpool.

Leeds has a -0.37 xG difference per 90 minutes in nine matches played. The Peacocks were at -0.72 xG per 90 minutes prior in their first 26 EPL fixtures under Bielsa.

However, Marsch’s only win against a team above his own in the table was a 3-2 comeback triumph at Wolverhampton, sparked by the sending off of Wolves forward Raul Jimenez.

If Leeds is going to preserve its Premier League status, it will have to do so without captain Luke Ayling.

The defender was sent off following a video review for a nasty two-footed challenge on Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli this past Sunday. He faces a three-match ban for violent conduct.

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Chelsea Getting Unlucky Down Stretch

Results suggest Chelsea has checked out in league play since its defeat in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal round. The analytics tell a tale that the Blues have just been unlucky.

Chelsea has grabbed only five points from its last five league matches since that quarterfinal aggregate loss to Real Madrid.

Yet, they’ve created more xG than opponents in three of those matches and their xG difference per 90 minutes is +0.46 in that stretch. That’s not all that far off the Blues’ +0.78 season average.

Striker Romelu Lukaku snapped out of an 11-match EPL scoring drought with a brace in Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Wolves, striking from the penalty spot in the 56th minute and adding another two minutes later on a crisp, one-time finish.

Wolves came back with two goals inside the final 15 minutes, including a Conor Coady’s leveler in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time. In 2022, it marked the fourth time EPL opponents have scored multiple goals at Stamford Bridge.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Chelsea failed in a recent similar occasion, suffering a 1-0 loss at Everton a week ago on a goal created by Richarlison’s opportunism and defender Cesar Azpilicueta’s gaffe.

Yet, while Everton’s position in the table at the time was the same as Leeds at this point, the former had a track record of giving the big boys trouble at home. The Peacock don’t have that under either of this year’s managers.

Chelsea has conceded one or fewer goals in 17 of 18 away Premier League fixtures. It’s more often been one recently, as it has been in three of its four previous trips to sides currently in the bottom five of the table.

The Blues won at Watford and Norwich City despite conceding goals. They probably should’ve yielded a goal at Burnley, allowing the underdog host side to rack up 0.8 xG in a 4-0 win.

That said, I see a similar scenario happening here. Leeds is better defensively under Marsch, but still hasn’t proven it can keep things tight enough against elite attacking opposition. Chelsea hasn’t proven the attention span to keep clean sheets in games where they’re a few goals to the good.

So, I’m playing a Single Game Parlay pairing Chelsea to win outright with Both Teams to Score at +200 odds and an implied 33.3% probability.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Chelsea ML & Both Teams to Score (+200)

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