Premier League Picks, Predictions, Best Bets | Brighton vs Wolves Preview

Brighton Are Excelling at Home

Brighton's loss to Nottingham Forrest during the midweek was one of the stranger results of the season. They created 2.34 xG and controlled 75% of the possession. But their high-press possession style of play came back to bite them, as they were exposed on the counterattack due to sloppy turnovers.

While it's fair to assume the odd result was because of a slight hangover effect from their disappointing Man United loss in the FA Cup a few days prior, goalkeeper Jason Steele quickly dismissed the notion in his post-match presser, stating, "it was just one of those nights."

Whatever the reason for the loss, there is no better cure for the Seagulls to bounce back into the win column than to be returning home. Brighton have collected 13 points of a possible 15 in front of their home crowd.

And while Brighton have been known for their offensive firepower this season – scoring 55 goals in their 30 games – their defense is what really benefits from a home-field advantage. They allow only 1.0 goals per game this season at home compared to 1.83 on the road, equating to a 25% home-field advantage.

Not to mention in four of their last five matches at Amex Stadium, they have recorded a clean sheet.

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Wolves Have Been Saved By Julen Lopetegui

Wolves have had two seasons in one. They dismissed previous manager Bruno Lage on match day 16 after losing 2-0 to Arsenal. If you took a picture of the table after that defeat, Wolves sat last with just two wins in their first 16 league games.

Since the Arrival of Julen Lopetegui, The Wanderers have secured points in 11 of their 18 matches and have won three of their last four. Before the former Sevilla manager arrived, Wolves averaged 0.7 points per game, and they are now averaging 1.42 with him and sit eight points clear of relegation.

The turnaround has simply been due to increased attention to detail from the staff and players. Lopetegui has already earned a reputation of a demanding coach. He doesn't just stick to one game plan, as he will adjust tactics from opponent to opponent. We've seen him line his team up in a 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, 3-4-3 and 4-4-2 in his small stint as head coach.

All sectors on the pitch have improved for the Wolves, but if we were to focus on one, the biggest area where Lopetegui's adjustments have improved is the stagnant offense. The 21 goals they have scored in 18 games under Lopetegui is nearly three times as much as they managed to net in the first 15 matches this season before he took over (8).

However, for all the high praise I just gave Lopetegui, they are still unable to get consistent results on the road. The Wanderers have recorded just two wins away from home all season.

Brighton vs Wolves Pick

This is a tale of two different teams with contrasting styles of play. Though Wolves have been known to adapt game to game under Lopetegui, their core values have been playing out of the back and crossing the ball in from the wide players, as they are currently fourth in the league for passes attempted over 30 yards.

Meanwhile, Brighton are an extremely high-pressing team that attempt to win the ball back high up the pitch and try to take away the deep ball. The Seagulls have allowed the fewest attempted and completed passes over 30 yards this season.

This should result in a huge tactical matchup advantage for Brighton and limit chances for Wolves. Meanwhile, we know Brighton are capable of lighting fireworks every time they step on the pitch as they lead the EPL in shots on target per 90 minutes with 5.8.

Look for Brighton to get right in this spot and continue their quest for their first ever European qualification. Take them on the spread at plus-money.

Pick: Brighton -1.5 (+145)