La Liga Betting Pick (Thursday, June 11): Sevilla vs. Real Betis Odds, Preview, TV Channel

Credit:

Silvestre Szpylma/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Andres Guardado.

  • La Liga, the top soccer league in Spain, is back, and Thursday's slate features a match between Sevilla and Real Betis (4 p.m. ET, beIN).
  • Sevilla are holding the third-place spot in the league, and are -115 favorites over Real Betis, who sit in the middle of the pack.
  • Below you'll find a complete list of betting odds for the match, as well as projected odds for comparison, and an expert pick on the moneyline.

Real Betis at Sevilla Betting Odds & Picks

Real Betis odds +290
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Sevilla odds -115
(BET NOW)
Draw odds +280
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Over/Under 2.5 (-121/-103)
(BET NOW)
Time Thursday, 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


La Liga, the top soccer league in Spain, returns on Thursday with the Seville Derby between Sevilla and Real Betis. Thursday’s showdown kicks off 15 straight days of La Liga action, so buckle up.

Sevilla have enjoyed a fantastic season so far and will look to solidify their third-place position behind title-chasers Real Madrid and Barcelona. Real Betis, on the other hand, sit in the middle of the table and don’t have all that much to play for as they are safe from relegation trouble but also likely too far behind in the race for European football next season.

That being said, this is one of Spain’s fiercest rivalries so expect both teams to be up for it as they get the honor of welcoming back La Liga.

Sevilla

Los Nervionenses were having one of their most successful La Liga seasons ever before the world came to a halt. Their success is legitimate, too, as Sevilla ranks fourth with a +13.28 expected goal differential and trails only Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in that metric.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Sevilla’s defense has been the main driver of their success in 2019-20. Los Nervionenses only allow 1.03 xGA per game, which is fourth-best in La Liga. Sevilla was trending in the right direction before the pandemic, as Los Nervionenses conceded just 0.9 xGA per match in their last last five home contests before the break.

Sevilla will line up in a 4-3-3 formation, which is a tactic that some of the world’s most successful clubs utilize because it allows plenty of options going forward. The 4-3-3 allows teams to combine two factors, a three-man central midfield — which can hold possession via passing triangles — and three strikers, who can press high up the field.

Sevilla have been terrific in the 4-3-3 and boast a +6.56 xG differential when they line up in their preferred formation. Look for Sevilla’s strong defense and overwhelming press up the pitch to cause Real Betis fits as they try to go forward.

Real Betis

Real Betis made a big splash in the transfer market before the season started bringing in Nabil Fekir (via Lyon) and Borja Iglesias (via Espanyol) for a total of $52,530,000. However, it hasn’t quite worked out the way Los Verdiblancos envisioned it. Fekir and Iglesias have only managed 6.8 xG in 46 combined appearances.

Real Betis’ struggles in front of goal are a team-wide problem as Los Verdiblancos only generate 1.3 xGF per game.

Analysis

Based on my model, I think Sevilla is wildly underpriced in this matchup. We obviously don’t know how each team will play coming off a long break and in front of no fans, but I have the expected goals and projected lines at:

  • Sevilla projected odds: -170 (63.54% win probability)
  • Sevilla projected expected goals: 1.9
  • Real Betis projected odds: +580 (14.7%)
  • Real Betis projected expected goals: 0.87
  • Draw projected odds: +360 (21.75%)

Based on those numbers, I think there is a lot of value on Sevilla to take all three points in the Seville Derby.

Pick: Sevilla -115

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