Just three weeks after a wild 4-2 thriller, Real Madrid and Benfica meet again today at 3:00 p.m. EST for the first leg of their Champions League knockout stage tie at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, Portugal.
Real Madrid is favored at a -118 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-188o / +150u) goals.
The previous clash was a chaotic affair that saw Benfica advance on a last-second goal from their keeper, and this rematch will test whether that result was an anomaly or a true indicator of the Spanish giant’s vulnerabilities.
Let's get into my Real Madrid vs. Benfica prediction.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction
Pick: Benfica Team Total Over 1.5 Goals
My Real Madrid vs. Benfica best bet is for the Portuguese side to score at least two goals at home.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -125 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | -118 |
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -188o / 150u | +320 |
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Pick
Pick: Benfica Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+150)
The value in this matchup lies with the home team’s attack. When these two clubs met less than a month ago, Benfica did not just win; they statistically dismantled the Real Madrid defense.
Jose Mourinho’s squad produced an offensive masterclass, creating eight big chances and accumulating 3.01 expected goals (xG). They thoroughly deserved their four goals and demonstrated a clear ability to penetrate one of Europe’s elite defenses.
This was not a fluke performance against a sound defense. Real Madrid has shown defensive issues on the road this season. Álvaro Arbeloa’s team has managed only seven clean sheets in 18 away fixtures across all competitions. More importantly, they have conceded two or more goals in six of those contests.
Benfica, meanwhile, is formidable at its home stadium. The Portuguese side has found the back of the net in all but one game at Estádio da Luz this season. They have scored two or more goals in 11 different matches at home.
Given Real Madrid’s defensive lapses on the road and Benfica’s proven formula to create high-quality chances against them, the home side should have no trouble with its goal count.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Real Madrid | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 53.7% | 21.1% | 25.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Real Madrid | Total Goals | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | 3.21 | 1.28 |
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Betting Analysis
The recent history between these two teams is defined by one single, unforgettable match just three weeks ago. On the final day of the Champions League league phase, Benfica needed a two-goal victory to advance.
After a back-and-forth contest that saw Kylian Mbappe score twice, Benfica found itself with a 3-2 lead deep in stoppage time, which was not enough. In the final seconds, goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin came forward for a set piece and scored a miraculous header to secure a 4-2 win and a place in the knockout round.
While a repeat of that six-goal spectacle is unlikely, the tactical lessons remain. The game state forced both teams to push forward, but Benfica proved more effective. They outshot Real Madrid 22 to 16 and created a staggering number of high-danger opportunities.
Mourinho may decide that a similarly aggressive approach is the best way to build a lead before the return leg in Spain.
Real Madrid will seek revenge, carrying the weight of its history and a roster full of talent, but the team arrives in Lisbon with serious concerns. The Spanish club will be without the suspended Rodrygo and Raul Asencio.
Even more critical is the status of superstar Kylian Mbappe, who is questionable due to knee discomfort. If Mbappe, the competition’s top scorer with 11 goals, cannot play, it would be a massive blow to an attack that already leans heavily on him.
A Real Madrid vs. Benfica pick must account for these potential absences, which significantly shift the balance toward the home team.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Real Madrid vs Benfica picks.
