Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig (Saturday, May 8)
Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Jadon Sancho.
Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Odds
|RB Leipzig Odds||+255|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-182 / +143)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday via DraftKings.|
The top-four race in Germany is setting up for a frantic final three weeks as Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt battle for the final two spots in Europe’s elite competition.
Dortmund’s top-four chances hinge greatly on its home match against Leipzig on Saturday, where they may need three points to keep pace with the teams in front of them and remain within reach entering the final day on May 22.
The Black and Yellow have won three straight in the league, with their attack creating plenty of chances and goals in the last few weeks. But now, they’ll face the league’s best defense in Leipzig, which is headed toward a second-place finish behind Bayern Munich.
These two sides will meet again on Thursday in the DFB-Pokal final, so we could see some squad rotation from Leipzig ahead of the match.
Dortmund team has been an enigma all season, making the team very difficult to figure out.
At times, the Black and Yellow have been worse than the sum of the parts. All of the attacking talent has failed to gel at times. They fired manager Lucien Favre and turned to Edin Terzić, but the results and performances really didn’t change that much.
The line is pricing in the must-win nature of this match for Dortmund. Making top four likely keeps Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland at the club, while a failure to qualify for the UCL could see both sold in the summer. I can’t play on Dortmund at this number but don’t want to play Leipzig given its departing manager.
Leipzig will have more of the ballm and Dortmund will look to counter it up the middle. I’m skeptical of Dortmund’s ability to generate shots at all, let alone high-quality ones.
The Black and Yellow have relied on big scoring chances instead of an accumulation of low xG shots. Dortmund takes fewer shots per 90 than Leipzig and has the highest xG per shot in the league.
Leipzig had a few unfortunate slip-ups in the league that cost it a chance to truly challenge Bayern for the title. It has to secure at least a draw to keep its title hopes alive, but Bayern will probably clinch the title against Borussia Monchengladbach later on Saturday anyway.
Despite the draw to Hoffenheim and loss to Koln, Leipzig’s performances have been trending up. Julian Nagelsmann’s side has posted a +1.65 non-penalty xG per 90 in its last four matches, per Understat.
In its last five matches, Leipzig had an undeserved loss to Bayern, a loss to Koln that it dominated on xG and a draw with Hoffenheim in which it missed multiple clear-cut scoring chances.
Simply put, Leipzig is still rolling.
Nagelsmann is leaving for Bayern at the end of the season, and other Bundesliga teams — Gladbach and Frankfurt — have seen drop-offs in performances following the announcement of their manager leaving. That keeps me off Leipzig in this match, but even despite his departure, I trust its elite defense that’s putting up ridiculously good numbers in a high-flying Bundesliga.
The team allows only 7.26 shots per 90 and 2.23 shots on goal per 90, both much better than every other team in the league. Across Europe’s top five leagues, only four teams have allowed fewer goals, and only Lille (in a weaker Ligue 1) has allowed fewer expected goals.
Nagelsmann’s complex possession structures and adaptation to press less during the COVID-19 era has led to one of the world’s top defenses. It will be difficult for Dortmund to create clear chances.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projections put this game at 2.75 goals, with Leipzig’s elite defense being undervalued in this matchup against Dortmund.
The first meeting between these two teams saw a very slow-paced opening 45 minutes before opening up in the second half. This game could very well be similar as Dortmund chases all three points late. Nagelsmann’s side doesn’t really need the game and will be happy to settle with a point if the game is tied late, so for that reason, I like this game to stay under the three goals.
Nagelsmann’s side has allowed fewer than 1.6 xG in every match but one in the Bundesliga this year, and it won’t be easy for Dortmund to break down and chase goals.
Pick: Under 3 (-120 or better)