Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich Odds & Pick: How to Bet Saturday’s Bundesliga Battle (April 17)
Max Maiwald/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolfsburg star Wout Weghorst.
- Heavyweights Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich go at it Saturday in a key Bundesliga showdown.
- The Wolves, led by Wout Weghorst, would love to grab three points against the defending league champions.
- Jeremy Pond explains below why he's backing Wolfsburg to pick up a result.
Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-117|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+138 / -175)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.|
Wolfsburg has aspirations of reaching next season’s Champions League, knowing it needs to finish in the Bundesliga’s top four to secure a spot in the prestigious European showcase.
This talented club gets a chance to take another step toward realizing that dream Saturday when it welcomes soon-to-be league champion Bayern Munich to Volkswagen Arena for a crucial showdown.
Wolfsburg enters this match in third place in the German top flight, sitting seven points behind RB Leipzig and just a point clear of Eintracht Frankfurt to round out the top four. Borussia Dortmund should not be counted out as well, with the outfit just seven off that fourth spot with the season dwindling down.
On the other side, it has been business as usual for the Bavarians. They’re four points ahead of RB Leipzig and closing in on their ninth consecutive league title. However, all is not hunky-dory in Munich. The club has been beset with injury and illness, which was a big reason why it made an early exit from Champions League action.
The Wolves had to be disappointed in their latest performance, which resulted in a 4-3 road defeat at the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt this past weekend. It was a blown chance to steer clear of another German side seeking a UCL spot, thus making this showdown with Bayern Munich all that more important.
Wolfsburg jumped out to an early 1-0 lead six minutes into the contest, but Frankfurt found the equalizer two minutes later. From then on, it was a wild, back-and-forth affair, and the Eagles were able to hold for the important win.
Wolfsburg, which received another goal from standout talisman Wout Werghorst, actually finished with a 1.8-1.6 edge in xG, but simply couldn’t match the metrics to its effort on the pitch.
However, there’s no time to dwell on past performances. The Wolves, who have won nine of their last 11 home league matches, have turned Volkswagen Arena into its own defensive fortress and should be optimistic facing a banged-up foe.
Goalkeeper Koen Casteels has been fabulous, recording 13 clean sheets — including club-record five in a row — entering this contest for a club that is unbeaten at home during its campaign.
As previously mentioned, all is not well for manager Hansi Flick and the Bavarians. The defending UCL champions had their chances of repeating at the competition ended Tuesday when Paris Saint-Germain held on for a 3-3 aggregate victory. The Parisians scored two away goals in the opening leg of the matchup, which proved to be the difference and sent them to the semifinals.
Robert Lewandowski, who has been sidelined for several matches due to injury, was sorely missed in both legs with PSG. Bayern Munich could not put anything together in the French juggernaut’s defensive third of the pitch in the final leg, with the club lacking the deft finishing touch from its players that Lewandowski has consistently brought to the club across all competitions.
The advanced metrics from the PSG match supported that aforementioned assessment of play, with Bayern Munich losing in the battle of expected goals. If you wanted the contest, you have probably assumed (like I did) the German giants had the advantage. However, that wasn’t the case, with the Parisians finishing the match with a 1.5-1.2 xG edge in the category.
Now, the Bavarians have to turn around and face a Wolfsburg side that has to be drooling at the opportunity in front of it. Lewandowski has returned to training but won’t make his next appearance with Bayern Munich until next weekend’s contest with Mainz.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This match comes down to two things: 1) which club is more fit and dealing with fewer injuries; and, 2) who needs a result. Needless to say, it’s Wolfsburg.
The Wolves have a monstrous opportunity staring them straight in their faces, knowing they’re getting a less-than-healthy and potentially unmotivated side as their latest opponents.
That said, I am finding a ton of value in the Double Chance line of Wolfsburg moneyline or Draw at (-109) odds and will back it as my top play. The Wolves’ home record is just too good to overlook. Throw in the Casteels’ stellar form on home soil, and you have to like your chances with this wager.
I will also sprinkle a little on Weghorst to find the back of the net at ripe +163 odds via DraftKings to have some action on the prop side of this match. The Dutch standout should be able to get in behind Bayern Munich’s defense, which will set up him for some quality scoring opportunities.
Pick: Double Chance — Wolfsburg or Draw (-109) | Wout Weghorst To Score Anytime — Yes (+163)