Premier League Odds & Pick: How to Bet Leeds United vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, Jan. 16)
Tim Keeton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Jack Harrison, right, celebrates a goal with teammates Raphinha, center, and Ezgjan Alioski.
- Leeds was dealt a shock loss against League Two outfit Crawley Town in a huge FA Cup upset last time out.
- Can the Peacocks find their wings in Saturday's Premier League tilt against Brighton & Hove Albion?
- Jeremy Pond thinks so and explains why below.
Leeds vs. Brighton Odds
|Leeds Odds||+116 [BET NOW]|
|Brighton Odds||+225 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+260 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-157/+125) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
Clubs coming off tough defeats last time out go at it Saturday when Leeds United hosts struggling Brighton & Hove Albion in a Premier League affair.
The Peacocks, fresh off a stunning 3-0 loss to League Two side Crawley Town in a Sunday FA Cup meeting, sit in 12th place on the table with 23 points.
On the other side, the visiting Seagulls suffered a frustrating 1-0 defeat to Manchester City during the midweek fixtures in England’s top flight. Anything but a victory in this contest would make it 10 matches in a row without a win for Brighton, which is near the relegation zone in 17th place on 14 points.
Let’s take a look at what could be on deck in this showdown.
Some believe it’s best to get right back on the pitch after a terrible defeat, which is exactly what manager Marcelo Bielsa and the Peacocks will do less than a week after that shocker against Crawley Town.
The setback marked two consecutive 3-0 defeats, with the first loss coming against Tottenham Hotspur in its most recent league fixture. Prior to that, Leeds came up roses via shutout wins over Burnley (1-0) and West Bromwich Albion (5-0) that pushed it toward the top half of the table.
If you dig into the club’s overall numbers, you uncover two very distinct things. They tell you this is a team that can light up the scoreboard on any given day, yet get lit up defensively at the exact same time.
The Peacocks have generated a blistering 29.3 expected goals, but a brutal 31.3 expected goals against that result in a relatively flat -2.0 xGDiff and -0.12 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Surprisingly, Leeds’ xG total is second overall and puts it only behind defending league champion Liverpool (33.1 xG) in the standings. That’s not too shabby for a club lingering middle of the pack.
Unfortunately, the Peacocks’ xGA counter their exceptional scoring prowess. They rank 19th out of 20 teams, with just drop-zone resident West Bromwich Albion (32.0 xGA) worse in the category.
Life for manager Graham Potter and his Seagulls continues to be relatively dark and gloomy.
Brighton is winless in its last nine league contests, settling for four losses and five draws during that disappointing stretch. That last time the club picked up all three points came via a 2-1 win over Aston Villa on Nov. 21 at Villa Park.
And that miserable play has the Seagulls sitting in a very precarious position, with Fulham nipping at their heels after reeling off five consecutive ties to get within two points of them.
When comparing advanced metrics with Leeds, Brighton has put up better numbers in all but one of the four major statistical categories.
The Seagulls sit on a modest 23.9 expected goals and solid 20.9 expected goals against, generating in a respectable +3.0 xGDiff and +0.17 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton actually ranks 8th overall in xGDiff and xGDiff/90, which has to baffle fans and pundits alike due to its poor record and overall play.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Leeds, which has a shot to climb into the top 10 with a victory, has to be licking its chops facing a Brighton side whose only positive showing in almost two months is an FA Cup shootout win over League Two outfit Newport County.
As far as possession goes, the Peacocks hold a sizable advantage over the Seagulls when looking at their respective last three league affairs.
- Leeds — 53% | 74% | 62%
- Brighton — 50% | 55% | 35%
That said, I am backing Leeds via a Draw No Bet wager at Elland Road. The current price of minus-167 odds is a touch higher than I’d like, so I’m hopeful the number could slightly tick down prior to kickoff.
The Peacocks are the slightly more rested coming off that shock FA Cup exit, plus they possess a ton of firepower the Seagulls simply cannot match.
I will also play the total to go over the number as well. There have been at least three goals in six of Leeds’ last seven league matches, which has me feeling confident in this angle.
Picks: Leeds — Draw No Bet (-167) | Total Over 2.5 Goals (-162)