Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Featuring Napoli vs. AC Milan (March 5-6)
Aitor Alcalde Colomer/Getty Images. Pictured: AC Milan standout Olivier Giroud.
It was a subpar week last time we delivered our top Serie A picks, with some bad luck mixed in with it as well.
Juventus pushed as a one-goal favorite at Empoli, while we suffered a brutal beat with our Napoli vs. Lazio under (two goals in the final six minutes) betting angle. Finally, Torino never came close to covering against Cagliari, which won the match outright to close out the card.
That leaves our record at 13-12-4 overall as we get ready to present another trio of plays. So without further ado, here's what I'm targeting this weekend.
Serie A Best Bets
Roma vs. Atalanta Odds
| Roma Odds | +145 |
| Atalanta Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-155 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Roma has played quite well at home of late, even if the results haven't fallen its way thus far.
Across its last five home fixtures, Roma own a +3.1 expected-goal differential, but a +0 goal differential in reality. That's indicative of a larger, season-long trend as Roma is sitting on a +5 goal differential against a +7 home xGDiff, per fbref.com.
Meanwhile, Atalanta has continued to overperform away from Bergamo and could see some negative road regression soon. Entering this fixture, the Nerazzurri hold a +14 road goal differential, but only a +8 xGDiff overall.
Additionally, it lost at home on xG against Roma (1.66-1.55) and surrendered more big scoring chances. By switching to a weaker venue, I believe Atalanta might struggle against a Roma defense due for some positive defensive regression.
Over its last seven fixtures, manage Jose Mourinho's side hasn't conceded more than 1.1 xGA in any one game. Lastly, despite conceding 10 times, the underlying metrics suggest that metric should be closer to five concessions.
With that in mind, back Roma to do no worse than a point at home.
Hennion's Pick: Roma — Draw No Bet (-130)
Bologna vs. Torino Odds
| Bologna Odds | +175 |
| Torino Odds | +165 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -135) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
This fixture presents a good opportunity for Bologna to avenge its road loss against Torino at a venue where it's far more comfortable.
Entering this match, Bologna holds the 11th-best home xGDiff in the Italian top flight and has turned in some great defensive performances. In fact, Bologna sit sixth in total home xGA, per fbref.com.
However, the main reason I see good value on the hosts is its home record against teams outside the top-eight clubs. Through eight home games against teams currently ninth or worse in the table, Bologna has dropped all three points only twice and has won outright in half of those contests.
Plus, its defense could receive some positive regression based on those eight performances. All told, Bologna has conceded nine times in those eight matches, but on 7.9 expected goals against.
On the flip side, Torino has struggled away from home of late. It has generated fewer than one xG in three of its last four road games and kept only a single clean sheet away home soil this season.
While positive regression could arrive for its attack, the fact is Torino still ranks out as the fourth-worst road attack in terms of total expected goals.
If Bologna can limit Torino's press, which ranks second in successful pressure rate, I believe it can play on the front foot. Given Bologna has posted above-average pressure percentage against metrics in all of those aforementioned matches against sides ninth or worse, I expect the hosts do no worse than a draw.
Hennion's Pick: Bologna — Draw No Bet (-115)
Napoli vs. AC Milan Odds
| Napoli Odds | +105 |
| AC Milan Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
The reverse fixture between these sides proved a drab, low-event contest and I have no reason to expect the opposite in this latest clash.
Without question, Napoli boasts the best home Serie A defense. Through 13 home games, it has conceded only eight xG and has allowed more than one xG on a single occasion.
Plus, if bettors examine its last five home contests, they'll find some positive regression could be on the way. In those five outings, Napoli has conceded four times but on 2.1 xG, per fbref.com.
Given AC Milan, which created only 0.5 xG in the first meeting, is due for substantial negative regression away from home (31 goals on 20 xG), I don't see how it gets on the board more than once.
Combine that with the fact Milan is starting to get healthy on defense — Fikayo Tomori is back in the fold for manager Stefano Pioli — and has conceded no more than one xG in four of its last five matches, and I expect Napoli's chances will be limited.
For those reasons, back a Napoli under on the total for the second consecutive week. The current price on under 2.5 goals is -125, but I'd play it to -135 odds.
Hennion's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
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