Serie A Picks, Odds & Predictions: How to Bet Sassuolo vs. Hellas Verona on Sunday, June 28

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Claudio Villa, Getty Images. Pictured: Gregoire Defrel

Jun 28, 2020, 12:50 PM EDT
  • The latest Serie A odds for Sunday's match between Sassuolo vs. Hellas Verona make Sassuolo a slight favorite to win (+150 odds on the three-way line).
  • Bad defenses have a way of making average offenses look elite.
  • Michael Leboff explains why he's picking the Over 2.5 goals in Sunday's Sassuolo-Hellas Verona match.

Hellas Verona at Sassuolo Odds, Pick

Hellas Verona odds +180 [BET NOW]
Sassuolo odds +150 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +235 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-117/-106)
[BET NOW]
Time Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Hellas Verona and Sassuolo have both put together pretty pedestrian records in Serie A this season.

Verona have been better, with 38 points and a +0.33 expected goals differential from 27 games, compared to Sassuolo, who sit on 33 points with a -9.82 xG differential, but there’s not all that much between these two squads.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Sassuolo Verona
Goals for per game 1.67 1.15
Expected goals for per game 1.4 1.38
Goals against per game 1.7 1.07
Expected goals against per game 1.7 1.41
Total goals per game 3.37 2.22
Total expected goals per game 3.09 2.79

In terms of offensive output, these teams should be on level pegging, though Sassuolo’s been a bit better at finishing scoring chances compared to Verona, who are slightly underperforming their 1.38 xG per match. In short, these are perhaps the two most average attacks in Serie A.

Bad defenses can make even the most pedestrian offenses look good and that’s what I’m hoping for on Sunday afternoon.

We’ll start with Verona’s overrated defense. On the surface, I Mastini look like one of Italy’s best defenses but their success is a bit of a mirage. In fact, no team in Serie A has a wider gulf between their goals allowed and expected goals allowed than Verona.

Sassuolo’s defense doesn’t look good no matter what you’re looking at. The Neroverdi rank 16th in goals allowed and 17th in expected goals conceded this season.

Only one team (Udinese) average fewer total goals per match than Verona (2.22) this season, but that number is misleading as Verona matches average 2.79 total xG.

I think the moneylines look about right, though I would play Verona if they move up to +200, but I am interested in this Over at 2.5 goals. This is a matchup between an overrated defense and a bad defense, so I think there’s a good chance we see some scoring.

Picks: Over 2.5 (-117)

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