AC Milan vs. Juventus Wednesday Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions (Jan. 6)

AC Milan vs. Juventus Odds

Undefeated AC Milan have a huge opportunity when they welcome The Old Lady from Turin to the San Siro on Wednesday. Juve are 10 points behind league-leading Milan in the table (with a game in hand), so Andrea Pirlo's side need to start racking up wins if they want to challenge for a 10th-straight Scudetto.

Considering the stakes, this could be a bit of a chess match between two Italian giants.

The must-have app for soccer bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free soccer picks from experts

Live odds for every game

Download Now

AC Milan

The current race for the Scudetto appears to be between the Milan rivals, with the Rossoneri holding a one point edge as we turn the calendar. It's been an impressive run for AC Milan considering that they have been without Zlatan Ibrahimovic and other key players for prolonged periods during the season. Milan's ability to see games out has stuck out as perhaps their most impressive trait.

That said, Milan's recent run of form has left a little bit to be desired if you look at the advanced data. The Rossoneri's 3-2 win over Lazio was barely warranted and could have easily ended in a draw, as Milan won the xG battle 1.88 to 1.46 and their 2-0 win over Benevento was quite lucky, as they surrendered 2.35 xG and created just 1.54. The latter match is a bit tricky to gauge since Milan did pick up an early red card, but the point is that they are not dominating teams like they did in the beginning of the season.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Rossoneri will once again be without Zlatan, Ismael Bennacer, Alexis Saelemakers, Matteo Gabbia, and Sandro Tonali. Most of this isn't new, but it must be noted that this side is far from fully fit.

Despite sitting in first, AC Milan are actually sixth in Serie A with a +9.66 non-penalty expected goal differential (npxGD). Part of the reason for the over-performance is an overachieving defense, but that can be expected as Donnarumma is one of the best goalkeepers in the world.

Some punters would suggest that AC Milan make good fade material going forward because they are running hot, but I don't necessarily agree. There's reasons why this team is overachieving and I could see their offensive production ticking up as they get healthier.

Juventus

While the boys from Turin only have one loss through 14 games, their six draws are holding them back. It makes some sense that Juventus has shown some growing pains in club legend Andrea Pirlo's first season as manager of a professional club. On top of that, they had to deal with Ronaldo being out with COVID. Ronaldo is in for this one, but now Juan Cuadrado and Alex Sandro will miss out due to the virus. Juve will also be without Alvaro Morata due to a muscle injury.

So clearly they will be very thin at the fullback position (Danilo, uh-oh) and will continue to have to create goals without a true striker. Like always, they will depend on Ronaldo to come through, and hope for some creation from Paulo Dybala, Weston McKennie, and Federico Chiesa.

Juventus rank third in Serie A with a +14.93 npxGD and their 29 goals scored trails their xG output of 31.73, so they've been a tab unlucky. While they sit fifth in the table, that does not do them justice. It wouldn't surprise me if the production runs hot over the coming games.

Juve have been clicking of late, putting up xG totals of 3.54, 0.39, 2.80, 2.71, 3.60 and 2.53 over their last six games. The one blemish, the 0.39 xG created in a loss against Fiorentina, came in a match where they picked up an early red and had a few VAR decisions go against them. Regardless, this team has been creating fantastic chances, and it appears that they might have turned a corner.

Juventus vs. AC Milan Best Bet

This game theoretically should have goals in it. Combined these teams generate 3.72 npxG per 90 minutes. I wouldn't fault anyone taking the over with those stats, but I would tread carefully here.

Juventus have a game in-hand, but trail AC Milan by 10 points. They literally cannot lose this game if they want any chance to come back in this race.

However, AC Milan just don't lose games. So because of that, I will be on the draw. It would not surprise me at all if this ends 1-1. The Rossoneri would be ecstatic with a point, especially given the injuries in the squad.

The Bet: Draw +230