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Soccer Odds: 2 Best Bets for Sunday with Premier League Postponed

Soccer Odds: 2 Best Bets for Sunday with Premier League Postponed article feature image
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Nicolas Tucat/Getty. Pictured: FC Koln.

While the Premier League has postponed all of its upcoming fixtures due to the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, a host of other European leagues will be in action on Sunday. That means there’s plenty of spots for you to take advantage of with all of the various soccer odds across Europe.

And though we know that Sunday is made for one sport in America, the NFL won’t get going until 1 p.m. ET. So, if you’re wondering what you can bet on before the afternoon hits, soccer has you covered.

Below, Nick Hennion and BJ Cunningham have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET or earlier, meaning you can get your betting fix in almost entirely before a football is snapped. 

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer.

Our 2 Early Sunday Best Bets

FC Koln vs. Union Berlin

Koln Odds +135
Union Berlin Odds +195
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-114)
Day | Time Sunday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hennion: Not only is Union Berlin coming off a midweek home defeat in the Europa League, but Koln presents a unique challenge to Sunday’s visitors.

Entering this fixture, Koln sits second in passes per defensive action, third in the Bundesliga in successful pressure percentage and seventh overall in high turnovers. On the flip-side, Union Berlin ranks 17th in PPDA and 18th in successful pressure percentage against.

Additionally, Union arrives at this fixture as a negative regression candidate based on their early matches. Through five Bundesliga fixtures, manager Urs Fischer’s side has a +8 goal differential against a +0 big scoring chances differential.

Plus, in two road matches against Mainz and Schalke, Union have generated exactly zero big scoring chances despite scoring six goals.

Although the defense has largely held up — four goals against on three big scoring chances –- I’m unsure how it performs against Koln, which are tied for sixth league-wide in total big scoring chances and could see some positive offensive regression.

For those reasons, I expect Koln, which had a +0.34 expected goal difference/90 minutes (xGDiff/90) at home last season, to do no worse than a draw.

Based on my numbers, I’ll back Koln on the draw no bet line up to -140.

Pick: Koln – Draw No Bet (-135)

SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Monchengladbach

Freiburg Odds +105
Monchengladbach Odds +270
Draw +270
Over/Under 3 (-105/-125)
Day | Time Saturday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: This one has the potential to get bonkers, just like the Leverkusen/Freiburg match did last weekend.

Freiburg are at the top of the Bundesliga table with four wins and one loss, as well as 8.3 xG created in their first five matches.

The club is also the best set piece team in Germany, with 19.19 xG created off them last season and already 2.05 xG this season. You want to know who was the worst set piece defense in the Bundesliga last season? That’s right — it’s Gladbach, who allowed 16.6 xG allowed off set pieces last season.

Early indications are that the Gladbach defense might be a little improved. If you remove the match against Bayern Munich and the match against Hoffenheim where they spent pretty much the whole match up a man, they’ve allowed 3.6 xG to Mainz, Hertha Berlin and Schalke.

However, Gladbach has been just as good offensively as they were last season, with 7.3 xG created in the non-Bayern matches and five big scoring chances created in those four matches as well.

Last season, Gladbach matches averaged 3.31 xG, and this season, we are at 3.06 xG per match. Freiburg were an average defensive team last year, but they were 15th in shots allowed per 90 minutes, while Gladbach was second in the Bundesliga in shots.

I have 3.51 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the total of three.

Pick: Over 3 (-105)

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