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Southampton vs. Newcastle League Cup Odds, Pick: Target Prop Market For Best Bet

Southampton vs. Newcastle League Cup Odds, Pick: Target Prop Market For Best Bet article feature image
Credit:

Craig Mercer/Getty. Pictured: Miguel Almiron.

  • Southampton host Newcastle on Tuesday in the League Cup.
  • What is the best bet to make for the unique fixture?
  • Soccer expert Ian Quillen breaks down the odds and his pick below.

Southampton vs. Newcastle Odds

Tuesday, Jan. 24
3 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Southampton Odds +390
Newcastle Odds -130
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -124)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) (-114 / -115)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Southampton and Newcastle are at opposite ends of the Premier League table, but both can take a step toward ending their club’s respective trophy droughts in the first leg of Tuesday’s League Cup semifinal.

You have to go back nearly 50 years to find Southampton’s only major trophy as winners of the 1975-1976 FA Cup. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s last came when they captured the 1996-1997 Premier League title.

Neither side has ever won this competition, though they’ve reached three finals between them. Most recently, Southampton lost the 2017 final to Manchester United, who play Nottingham Forest in this year’s other semifinal.

Visiting Newcastle thumped Southampton 4-1 in the league in early November. That result preceded the sacking of the Saints’ former manager Ralph Hasenhuttl.

Let’s get into this fixture.

Southampton on Rollercoaster Ride of Form

Whether incoming manager Nathan Jones has been an improvement depends a bit on which competition you’re watching.

The Saints have lost five of six under Jones in the league to remain firmly planted at the bottom of the table. The lone exception was a 2-1 win at fellow relegation strugglers Everton two weekends ago, decided on James Ward-Prowse’s free-kick winner in the 78th minute.

But it’s a different story in their two cup competitions, where the Saints have won all three of their matches over 90 minutes.

That included an utterly stunning 2-0 home victory over defending league champions Manchester City in the quarterfinals. The Saints leaped out to their lead by the half-hour mark after goals from Sekou Mara and Moussa Djenepo, then rarely looked threatened while defending it.

It’s still unclear if there could be a potential improvement and escape from the relegation places coming. But Jones will point to his side’s improved defensive record of late, conceding only four times in their last five played across all competitions.

Even so, defending restarts remain an issue. Southampton conceded their ninth goal from a set piece this season in Saturday’s 1-0 home league loss to Aston Villa, a game in which they otherwise deserved a result.

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Newcastle Cruising Along With CL Production

The Magpies have gone 15 matches without defeat in the Premier League to stake their claim as genuine contenders for next year’s UEFA Champions League.

This is their lone other competition remaining following a quick exit from the FA Cup at League One’s Sheffield Wednesday earlier this month.

But while their high press defending continues to remain excellent under manager Eddie Howe, there are signs of a slowing attack.

The duo of Miguel Almiron and Callum Wilson have combined for 15 goals in the league, but only one since play resumed following the World Cup. If not for Alexander Isak’s brilliant free-kick winner two games ago against Fulham, Newcastle would be talking about a four-match scoreless run in the league.

The Swedish forward Isak has come off the bench for 20-plus minutes in two league games now after recovering from a thigh injury. With his team playing consecutive away matches three games apart, this could be a spot for him to make his first start since the injury.

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Southampton vs. Newcastle Pick

The Saints’ xG difference suggests they’re not as bad as their place in the table. Their Cup performances so far might also indicate a more confident side when not playing in the league. And their defensive improvement perhaps owes to Jones being more pragmatic than his predecessor.

Meanwhile, Newcastle’s offensive regression also checks out. As good as Miguel Almiron has been, he was never intended to be the Magpies’ primary scorer, and a slow-down was always likely. Isak’s return should help things in that respect, but he’s still a bit unproven and inexperienced at this level.

There’s also the unique aspect of the two-leg format with aggregate goals coming into play. That could leave Newcastle to be more conservative than they might in a one-off encounter.

With all of that, there’s probably some value on the home side in a few forms. The strongest angle might be offensively fading a Newcastle team that may be too heavily favored on the moneyline to score one goal or fewer at -116 odds and an implied 53.8% probability.

Even a solitary goal in a win or a draw would be considered a good result for the Magpies, who would like their chances in leg two up north in a week’s time.

Pick: Newcastle Under 1.5 (-116 via DraftKings)

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