Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Southampton vs. Everton (Sunday, Oct. 25)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Southampton vs. Everton (Sunday, Oct. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Peter Byrne — Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton star James Rodriguez goes down with an injury in last week’s match against Liverpool.

  • Unbeaten Everton heads to St. Mary's Stadium today to face Southampton.
  • The Saints and Toffees have not had trouble scoring goals this season.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and delivers his top plays below.

Southampton vs. Everton Odds

Southampton Odds +200 [BET NOW]
Everton Odds +132 [BET NOW]
Draw +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-134/+107) [BET NOW]
Time 10 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Sunday at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Things get started bright and early Sunday at the St. Mary’s Stadium, where Southampton hosts unbeaten Everton in Premier League action.

The Saints, who sit in 12th place and are currently tied with four other clubs on seven points, hope they can put the first defeat on their opponent’s record.

Everton has been all class at the start of the campaign, which has it top of the table on 13 points. The Toffees are level on points with local rivals Liverpool, after the Reds defeated Sheffield United on Saturday, but have an advantage with a plus-seven goal difference.

Let’s take a deeper look at the sides in what should be an entertaining affair:

Southampton

It has been a tale of two seasons for Southampton thus far.

The Saints opened their campaign with losses against Crystal Palace and Spurs before reeling off shutout wins against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion. In their most recent match, Southampton rallied twice against Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge.

Danny Ings has led the way for Southampton’s attack, recording a team-leading four goals this season. If the Saints are going to have any success against a talented Everton side, they need to get more contribution from their supporting cast.

The Saints are pretty solid when it comes to the numbers, sitting on 6.4 expected goals and  5.8 expected goals against this season. That results in a +0.6 xGDiff and +0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes. Those stats put them in the middle of the Premier League.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Everton

Will he or won’t he play?

That is the question lingering around star James Rodriguez, who picked up a knock in Everton’s 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the latest chapter of the Merseyside Derby last weekend at Goodison Park.

First, it was reported the Colombian international would miss the match, but his appearance at Friday’s training session and subsequent comment from manager Carlo Ancelotti, stating his marquee player was “definitely not out,” has many believing he will be ready for this fixture.


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Getting Rodriguez on the pitch would be a huge coup for Ancelotti, who is already going to be without left winger Richarlison, who is serving a suspension after picking up a red card against Liverpool.

When comparing its statistical data against Southampton, Everton is far superior and boats some of the best overall numbers in the league. The Toffees have 9.9 xG and 5.1 xGA, resulting in a +4.8 xGDiff and +0.95 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Everton’s xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes are only second to Liverpool (+4.9 xGDiff and +0.97 xGDiff/90) and somehow second in xGA to lowly Burnley (5.0 xGA), which is 12 points behind it in 18th place in the relegation zone.

Southampton-Everton pick

You really don’t like to pin a team’s success on one player, but that’s exactly what I am doing here when it comes to Rodriguez.

Everton is already down Richarlison, so without knowing for sure whether Rodriguez is going to feature is something I am not going to mess around with when it comes to backing a side.

That being said, I am completely staying off a side. Instead, I am playing the total to go over the number.

There have been at least three goals in the Toffees’ last four league tilts, which has me confident in this angle. What gives me even more confidence? Southampton has seen at least three goals in five of its last six home matches against Everton across all competitions.

I will also back both teams to score. Everton has yet to be shut out and Southampton’s only scoreless showing was in the Crystal Palace opener.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-132); Both Teams To Score — Yes (-175)

[Bet the Southampton-Everton match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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