Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace (Sunday, March 7)
Matthew Childs/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur star Harry Kane.
- Tottenham Hotspur looks to get back to its winning ways Sunday in a London derby against Crystal Palace.
- The Eagles might have star attacker Wilfried Zaha back from injury, but it's unlikely to be enough against the hosts.
- Anthony Dabbundo lays out how he's backing manager José Mourinho's team below.
Spurs vs. Crystal Palace Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+650|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-114 / -109)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Tottenham Hotspur survived a sluggish second half and a controversial VAR decision to earn a 1-0 victory over Fulham, 1-0, in Thursday’s Premier League action..
Spurs will look to win their third consecutive league game Sunday when Crystal Palace visits Tottenham Hotspur stadium.
While half-by-half splits are often noisy in small sample sizes, Spurs’ tactical style offers value in backing them in the first half.
Spurs wilted in the second half against Fulham, as the Cottagers nearly equalized multiple times in the first 25 minutes of the second half.
The club looked tired after a high-energy first half of pressing. When Tottenham pressed with its front four of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min, Gareth Bale and Dele Alli, it created multiple big chances and could have been up two goals at half if they took them.
In many ways, Spurs’ win against Fulham was reminiscent of so many of their games all year. Play a great first half, create enough chances to get a lead and then run out of gas trying to protect that lead. When Spurs met Crystal Palace in the reverse fixture, they dominated the first half, led 1-0 and conceded a late equalizer.
Looking back, this is what Tottenham’s numbers are via a comparison between the first half vs. second half:
- First half: 24 goals scored; seven allowed
- Second half: 18 goals scored; 20 allowed
Spurs’ biggest weakness is their backline, and that issue is compounded when manager José Mourinho plays the two inferior fullbacks — Matt Doherty and Ben Davies — over Sergio Reguilon and Serge Aurier. Their pressing, defending and wide creativity is all much better with the best fullbacks, and both should play given that they were rotated Thursday.
The Eagles stifled Manchester United during their midweek fixture, but that was more the Red Devils being unable to string together attacks and produce consistent attacks than Crystal Palace’s defensive prowess.
For the year, the Eagles are second worst in xG difference and the third-worst team in the league by my own metrics. Crystal Palace will have Wilfried Zaha back for this match in some capacity, but it’s not clear if he will start, which is another reason to look to back Tottenham in the opening 45 minutes.
Even with Zaha returning, Crystal Palace is in both injury and form crisis. Multiple usual defensive starters and midfielder James McCarthy have been ruled out. The Eagles have looked more porous than usual in the back, allowing at least one expected goal in each of their last six league matches.
Weaker attacks like Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle United all found plenty of big scoring opportunities against them and Spurs should be no different.
Betting Analysis & Picks
My projection makes Spurs’ money line at -180 for the game, so I find no value on them over 90 minutes.
However, Tottenham should be able to get off to a fast start with likely the same attacking front four as Thursday and better fullbacks in this contest. I don’t trust Spurs enough in the second half to back the spread, but taking them in the first half has been very profitable and I’m going back to it again.
Pick: Spurs 1H ML (-104)