Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Liverpool (Sunday, Jan. 31)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Ham United vs. Liverpool (Sunday, Jan. 31) article feature image
Credit:

Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United goalkeeper Łukasz Fabiański.

  • West Ham United takes on Liverpool in an intriguing Premier League match Sunday at London Stadium.
  • Anthony Dabbundo takes a detailed look at these clubs and gives his top pick below.

West Ham vs. Liverpool Odds

West Ham Odds +350
Liverpool Odds -137
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+132) 
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Liverpool notched one of its best performances of the season Thursday in its impressive, 3-1 victory over host Tottenham Hotspur in Premier League action.

Now, the Red turn their attention to another London-based club when they take on West Ham United on Sunday in an intriguing contest.

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West Ham

Based on the last five matches, only Manchester City is in better form than manager David Moyes’ West Ham United outfit.

The Hammers have won four and drawn once in their last five matches, vaulting to fifth on the table. The return of Michail Antonio has bolstered West Ham’s attack, which has steamrolled West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace in recent weeks. Yet, even more impressive has been the defense, which has completely shut off the oppositions’ attacks.

West Ham’s has allowed 2.2 xG from their last five matches, with no team producing more than half of an expected goal against them. While the Hammers will face a significant uptick in opponent quality when Liverpool visits, the improvement cannot be ignored.

After a shaky start to the season, the Hammers rank eighth best in the xGA category. They’ll look to counterattack to find success offensively and Tomáš Souček will be difficult for Liverpool to match up with in the penalty area.

Soucek and Declan Rice are very competent at destroying opposition play and recovering the ball in the midfield. They should be able to contain Liverpool’s counter-pressing tactics, thus avoid allowing big chances.

Liverpool

All of the talk post-match about Liverpool after its thrashing of Spurs was its offense. And rightly so. After scoring just one goal in five matches, the Reds were able to finally finish the chances they created.

What should be noted is that Liverpool’s defense only allowed four shots in the win. They did let Son Heung-min in for a goal five minutes out that was ruled out by an inch due to VAR, but the Reds’ defense was very impressive in shutting down the Spurs’ counters.

West Ham will look to play similarly to the way did Spurs in this game. Sit deep and counter, as the two sides are arguably two of the league’s best in quick-strike attacking. However, while their lackluster offense has stolen the headlines, the Reds’ excelling defense has been ignored.

Liverpool allowed fluke goals to Burnley (a penalty), Spurs (a 25-yard wonder strike) and Southampton (set piece) in the last month. Otherwise, the Reds have conceded almost no big chances.

Not one team has surpassed 1.0 non-penalty expected goal against this makeshift Liverpool defense in recent weeks, and I don’t expect that to change in this contest.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

My projections suggest that both teams to score is 55.84 percent in this match, meaning that betting “No” would win 44.16% of the time.

Those implied odds calculate to +128, which is worse than the +140 being offered on DraftKings.

I’d bet both teams won’t score at +132 or better, with the defenses continuing to be underrated. I project 2.98 goals, so I will pass on the total, but do see some value here on at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Pick: Both Teams To Score — No (+132 or better)

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