Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: AC Milan vs. Inter Milan (Feb. 21)
Marco Luzzani/Getty Images. Pictured: Romelu Lukaku (left) and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
- AC Milan and Inter Milan face off in one of the biggest rivalry games between the teams in the past decade.
- Both clubs are vying for the Serie A title, with AC Milan starting to falter as of late in its chase of league leader Inter Milan.
- Matt Trebby breaks down where he sees the betting value and why he's backing the Nerazzurri below.
AC Milan vs. Inter Milan Odds
|AC Milan Odds||+265|
|Inter Milan Odds||-103|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-143 / +116)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
For the first time in exactly one decade, the two Milan teams are competing at the top of Serie A.
Sunday’s Milan Derby is likely the most important episode of the fixture in 10 years. Top-of-the-league Inter Milan play visitor to AC Milan, with the two clubs separated by one point in the race for the Scudetto.
The last time the two Milan clubs finished as the top-two in Serie A was the 2010-11 season, when Zlatan Ibrahimovic led the Rossoneri to the title. Juventus have won the last nine titles and aren’t totally out of the race this season, but all eyes are on Milan at the moment.
Inter leads Milan by just one point with both teams having played 22 league games. This will be a potentially decisive matchup that could set the tone for the rest of the Serie A season.
Let’s find where the betting value lies:
It appears Milan’s fairytale-like run toward the Serie A title is beginning to fall apart. Stefano Pioli’s side has lost three of its last seven league games, including an embarrassing performance like weekend against Spezia.
In their latest defeat, Milan lost the expected goals (xG) battle, 1.33-0.52, a shocking set of numbers given Spezia’s current position in a relegation battle.
Milan’s xG numbers have long indicated that they are due for regression. They have never come close to the likes of Roma, Juventus, Atalanta, Inter or Napoli, which are the top five in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) at the moment in Serie A, according to Understat.
Milan is sixth in the league with a 10.94 NPxGD, which is just 1.71 higher than Udinese, who are 14th in the table. The Rossoneri’s actual goal difference is +20, indicating a lot of good fortune this season.
And since the start of 2021, Milan’s NPxGD is just 0.47, ranking eighth in the league. Over their last seven league games, Milan have allowed at least 1.3 xG five times, indicating they are conceding too many scoring chances to win the league.
As was the case 10 years ago, it’s Ibrahimovic leading the Milan charge. He has 14 goals in just 12 Serie A appearances, having missed time earlier this winter due to an injury. The 39-year-old covers up a lot of Milan’s flaws with his second-to-none finishing ability.
After taking just five points from four games against Sampdoria, Roma, Juventus and Udinese, Inter have won their last three matches in convincing fashion to leap over Milan to the top spot in Serie A.
Unlike their red and black neighbors, the Nerazzurri are performing well since the turn of the calendar. Their NPxGD is third in Serie A at 9.62, trailing Atalanta at the top by just 0.47 and Juventus by 0.43. On the season, Inter is fourth.
Half of Inter’s 54 Serie A goals this season have come from their dynamic striker partnership of Romelu Lukaku (16) and Lautaro Martinez (11). Manager Antonio Conte’s 3-5-2 has been a big success this season going forward thanks to them, and the addition of pace fullback Achraf Hakimi has also given Inter a different dimension on the right wing.
Of late, though, it has been the Inter defense that has impressed the most. They have a stable back three of Milan Skriniar on the right, Stefan de Vrij in the middle and Alessandro Bastoni out left. The trio has started four of the last five Inter league games, with only de Vrij not starting on Jan. 30 against Benevento.
Over their last five Serie A fixtures, Inter have conceded one goal, which came last weekend against Lazio. Inter has not allowed more than 1.00 xG in any of those games, and even held Benevento to a staggering 0.00. In the Nerazzurri’s win over Juventus on Jan. 17, the reigning champions even were held to just 0.37.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I’m not going to think too hard about this one. Inter is currently -103 on DraftKings, indicating they think a Nerazzurri victory has about a 50.8% likelihood of happening.
Based on both teams’ recent results and current form, I can’t disagree with that number one bit. I’m actually a bit surprised it isn’t higher.
Across the board, Inter is thriving domestically while Milan is faltering. I expect Conte’s side to control the game, have the majority of chances and take all three points.
Don’t overthink this. Take the Inter moneyline.
Picks: Inter Milan -103 (up to -120)