Chelsea (14-13-10) and Sunderland (13-12-12) will face off today at 11:00 a.m. EDT at Stadium of Light in Sunderland.
Chelsea is favored at +101, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-138o / +105u) goals.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs. Sunderland prediction.
Chelsea vs. Sunderland Prediction
Pick: Match Result — Draw
My Chelsea vs. Sunderland best bet is on the match result, with no winners at the end of the 90 minutes.
Chelsea vs. Sunderland Odds
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -105 | 2.5 -138o / +105u | +101 |
| Sunderland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -135 | 2.5 -138o / +105u | +252 |
Chelsea vs. Sunderland Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Match Result — Draw
Leg 2: Both Teams To Score — Yes
Sunderland have been competent at the Stadium of Light this season following their promotion to the Premier League. They’ve only lost four of 18 games, winning eight and drawing six. The 30 points returned at home ranks 12th-best in the division, and is four points more than Chelsea has managed at Stamford Bridge.
Notably, Sunderland has only conceded 19 goals at home all season long. Only Arsenal (11), Manchester City (12) and Brighton (17) have conceded fewer goals in front of home support. This is not a straightforward fixture for any Premier League side, and considering this is the final day of the season and a chance for Sunderland to sign off their season in front of their home fans, many might expect a positive result for the hosts in the 1x2 market.
Additionally, Chelsea has lost four of their last five away fixtures. However, they are currently in 8th, one point behind Brighton, and could leapfrog the Seagulls into a Europa League qualification spot with a victory here. That difference in motivation might make the difference for Chelsea, although that’s factored into the 1x2 prices.
Instead of aligning with the bookmakers, perhaps the ‘Draw’ option at the most significant price of the three options in the 1x2 market is the best way to play this. Sunderland were last seen at home to Manchester United in a 0-0 draw, performing well and unlucky not to win. Not only that, but in October, Sunderland left Stamford Bridge with a 1-2 victory.
This is a difficult game to call, with either side capable of winning the match, so instead we’ll take the draw option — a result that has occurred in 22 of 74 matches combined between the two teams this season.
Chelsea vs. Sunderland Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Chelsea | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 51.2% | 23.6% | 25.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Chelsea | Total Goals | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | 2.89 | 1.11 |
Chelsea vs. Sunderland Betting Analysis
Both Chelsea and Sunderland are hunting a victory to secure European football, with bookmakers suggesting a greater than 60% chance of both sides scoring, making a 1-1 draw the most anticipated scoreline.
Chelsea finally ended a dismal seven-game winless run in the league by beating Spurs 2-1 last time out, a spell during which they had registered just two goals. However, over the course of the season, the Blues have underperformed their xG (expected goals) tally by 8.65, the second-best negative differential in the Premier League. A regression to the mean is likely in the last game of the campaign.
Sunderland are aiming to secure back-to-back Premier League wins for the third time this season, having previously achieved the feat in October and across March and April.
While goals are predicted for this encounter, the Black Cats have seen both teams find the back of the net in just one of their last seven outings.
Our in-house model aligns closely with the bookmakers' outlook, rating the probability of both teams scoring at over 55%.
